Ukraine and Russia are holding preliminary negotiations on ending mutual attacks on energy infrastructure through the mediation of Qatar.
The Financial Times writes that in August the parties were close to an agreement, and a meeting was being prepared in Doha, but the agreements fell through due to the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region. Negotiations are currently underway and energy facilities are being discussed.
One Ukrainian official noted that in recent weeks both sides have reduced the frequency of attacks on the energy sector, following an unspoken agreement between the intelligence services. The former Kremlin official believes that Russia is unlikely to support such an agreement until Russian troops oust the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Kursk region. Ukraine will continue attacks on Russian infrastructure, including oil refineries, to increase pressure on Moscow.
There are very preliminary talks about a potential renewal. Negotiations are currently underway on energy projects, one diplomat told the FT.
This agreement, if reached, could be the most significant de-escalation since Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said this month that an agreement to protect energy facilities could signal Russia’s readiness for broader peace talks.
In recent weeks, as part of agreements reached by both countries’ intelligence services, Russia and Ukraine have already reduced the number of attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure, according to a senior Ukrainian official.
As winter approaches, Ukraine faces major challenges from massive Russian missile attacks that have destroyed nearly half of its energy-generating capacity.
The country now relies mainly on its nuclear power plants and energy imports from European partners.
Both Kyiv and Moscow have previously acknowledged that stopping attacks on the Ukrainian power grid and Russian oil refining facilities is in their mutual interests.
But, as a Russian official involved in the negotiations stressed, it is unlikely that an agreement will be agreed until Russian troops push Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region, where Kyiv still controls about 600 square meters. km of territory:
While the Ukrainians are trampling the ground in Kursk, they will strike at Zelensky’s energy infrastructure,” the interlocutor said.
At the same time, according to a senior Ukrainian official, Ukraine plans to continue striking Russian targets, including oil refineries, to force Russia into negotiations.
Given the ban on the use of long-range weapons that could strike energy and military facilities in Russia, Kyiv has little leverage to force the Russians into negotiations.
According to the publication, the invasion of the Kursk region led Moscow to withdraw from the preliminary round of negotiations in August just as officials began planning a face-to-face meeting in Doha.
Qatar became a mediator in these negotiations, which took place in June after the Peace Summit in Switzerland.
Other attempts to reach agreements have also failed in the past. Kyiv and Moscow entered into a “tacit agreement” last fall that they would not attack each other’s energy facilities, according to four Ukrainian officials.
As a result, say two Ukrainian and one American sources, Russia refrained from large-scale attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure that winter. The agreement was meant to pave the way for a formal agreement, these people said.
However, in February and March this year, Kyiv resumed drone attacks on Russian oil facilities, seeking to increase pressure on Moscow.
Despite the White House warning to stop the strikes, Kyiv continued them, so Moscow regarded this as a violation of the agreement.
Then Russia escalated, launching missile attacks on power plants throughout Ukraine, including destroying the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, 40 km from Kyiv.
The Ukrainian campaign has targeted at least nine of Russia’s 32 major oil refineries since early 2024.
Sergei Vakulenko of the Carnegie Eurasia Center said that at the peak of the attacks in May, 17% of Russian oil refining capacity was damaged, but most of it had been repaired.
Russia exports relatively small quantities of petroleum products, and its refining capacity is more than double its fuel consumption.
Russia’s response to Kyiv’s attacks plunged much of Ukraine into temporary darkness and led to the shutdown of 9 GW of electricity generation capacity – half of what Ukraine needed last year to survive the winter. Kyiv was unable to fully restore these capacities.
Last week, Putin said Russia was ready to consider “any options for peace agreements based on the realities on the ground.”
Previously, he demanded from Ukraine full control over the four front-line regions, which Moscow only partially occupies, as well as the complete lifting of Western sanctions.
Ukraine considers these conditions unacceptable for any potential peace negotiations.
Putin said Türkiye, which helped mediate a failed attempt to negotiate an end to the war in the spring of 2022, recently offered new peace proposals that Ukraine promptly rejected.
Obviously they are not ready yet. The ball is in their field, said the Russian dictator.
Source: Racurs
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