Human-caused global warming has increased to 1.19°C over the past decade (2014-2023). It is increasing at a record rate, reaching approximately 0.26°C per decade.
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This is stated in the second annual report “Indicators of Global Climate Change”, prepared by the University of Leeds (UK), reports Phys.org.
The new figures thus represent a marked increase from the 1.14°C recorded in the previous report, which covered 2013–2022.
Scientists note that observed temperatures are the result of a long-term trend that is also influenced by short-term natural fluctuations—in 2013, when temperature records were broken, these natural factors temporarily added about 10% to long-term warming.
If we consider 2023 separately, warming caused by human activity has reached 1.3 °C. This is less than the overall warming we experienced in 2023 (1.43°C), suggesting that natural climate variability, particularly El Niño, also played a role in 2023’s record temperatures. in the article.
It is noted that such a high rate of warming is caused by a combination of several factors:
- persistently high greenhouse gas emissions, equivalent to 53 billion tons of CO2 per year;
- continuous improvement in air quality, which reduces the force of anthropogenic cooling of particles in the atmosphere. Thus, reducing emissions of sulfur, which has a cooling effect on the climate by directly reflecting sunlight back into space and helping to form more reflective clouds, has reduced this effect.
The report also shows that the remaining carbon budget – how much carbon dioxide could be emitted to avoid global warming of 1.5°C – is only about 200 gigatons (billion tons), equal to about five years of current emissions:
- in 2020, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that the carbon budget remaining to achieve 1.5 °C ranged from 300 to 900 gigatons of carbon dioxide, with a central estimate of 500;
- Since then, CO2 emissions and global warming have continued—at the beginning of 2024, the residual carbon budget at 1.5°C was between 100 and 450 gigatons, with a central estimate of 200.
Source: Phys.org
Source: Racurs
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