Missile terror: what Ukraine should prepare

Western publications fear that without the help of its allies, Kyiv may run out of ammunition for its air defense systems.

At the beginning of the Christmas holidays, Russia began a massive shelling of Ukrainian cities with missiles, which it had been stockpiling since the fall. Ukrainians met 2024 in shelters to the sounds of explosions from not only Russian, but also, according to some statements, North Korean shells. The Western media wrote detailed reports on this matter and predicted the possible consequences.

So, the newspaper The Washington Post wrote a report on the comments of the shelling victims in Kyiv and Kharkov on December 29 and January 2, as well as on its own observations of the terrible scenes when rescued by the State Emergency Service the victims. Journalists also described the January 2 attack as occurring in two waves: the first swarm of drones just after midnight, followed by a rocket attack a few hours later.

Separately, the publication noted that shortly after the attacks in Ukraine, sirens sounded in Belgorod, “contrary to the opinion of many Western governments that prohibited Ukraine from using its weapons systems to destroy Russian targets.” The US official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said US policy “has not changed.”

At the same time, the publication said that in light of all the events in Kyiv, air defense is becoming increasingly important for the life of the Ukrainian capital. Citing Vladimir Zelensky, the media wrote that air defense systems, especially the Patriot, have saved at least hundreds of lives, and that Russia is responsible for every life lost. And referring to Valery Zaluzhny, journalists noted that with the help of the Patriot, all 10 Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missiles were shot down, which is a record.

Continuing the Daggers theme, an interview with the Washington Post with Air Force Spokesman Yuri Ignat was cited, which revealed that Russia is spending significant resources to continue airstrikes on Ukrainian cities.

“The enemy has a certain amount of resources that he can use. Launching 10 missiles at the same time is a huge cost. These missiles are not produced quickly,” said Ignat.

In an article by The New York Times, journalists also wrote a report about the bombing based on eyewitness comments and expressed the view that the recent strikes in Ukraine could also be the beginning of another Russian air campaign against critical infrastructure.

Ukrainian authorities have warned for months that Russia is stockpiling precision-guided missiles to hit cities as the weather cools, repeating last year’s bombing campaign. Experts believe that this strategy is aimed at weakening the morale of Ukrainians and undermining the country’s military and industrial potential.

The authors of the material believe that both sides have improved their air defense in the past year, but they have also expanded their military capabilities to hit targets far from the front line. As the cycle of strikes and counterstrikes escalates, Moscow and Kyiv show an increasing willingness to deploy these capabilities.

Journalists quoted Sergei Kuzan, head of a research group at the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, as expressing the opinion that Ukraine’s strong air defense is now forcing Russia to launch massive air attacks using various weapon systems to evade interceptor missiles and hit certain targets. In this regard, with each new attack, he added, Russia increasingly legitimizes “Ukrainian reprisals against Russian air and naval bases, ammunition depots, defense enterprises and enemy oil bases .”

From this, the journalists concluded that both sides appear to be justifying the air strikes as revenge for previous attacks, leading to an increase in the situation of an eye-for-an-eye and risks causing of more civilian casualties, both from direct attacks and from fallout. lips. Since the start of the war, Russia has regularly shelled civilian areas of Ukraine, causing thousands of casualties. That’s why anti-Russian anger has grown in Kyiv since the January 2 attack and, as the war drags on, could fuel the country’s determination to take the fight to Moscow’s doorstep.

The British newspaper The Guardian published material on Russia’s use of missiles transferred to North Korea. This, according to the media, indicates Moscow’s plans to further expand its military agreements with sanctioned regimes to support its military efforts.

Russia is looking to North Korea and Iran to replace their stockpiles of weapons, including Soviet-era artillery shells and “stray” munitions. Russia also intends to supply Iran with ballistic missiles, but there are no reports of their availability from the Russian Federation. Both Moscow and Kyiv are competing to rearm after two years of war, with Ukraine turning to Western allies led by Washington while Russia looks to other states with little to lose.

John Kirby, a spokesman for the US National Security Council, said on Thursday that North Korea must now provide Russia with fighter jets, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment and other advanced technology. . This, in turn, will have implications for the Indo-Pacific region and the Korean Peninsula. Also highlighted in this context was Kirby’s statement that Moscow’s foreign arms purchases should serve as a reminder to Congress of the cost of its failure to pass an aid package to Ukraine by Christmas.

The American news channel ABC News released material about the attack on the morning of January 8. Journalists, citing the Air Force, wrote that Ukraine was able to shoot down only 18 of 51 Russian missiles, and 33 missiles could hit their intended targets.

A major factor in the low level of success of Ukraine’s air defense during the attack was Russia’s targeting of many undefended areas of the country, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat told ABC News. Journalists also noted that Ukrainian officials did not comment on how low the country’s air defense missile stockpile is, but Ignat suggested that other factors played a role in Sunday night’s attack.

The authors even noted that Moscow’s latest missile attack this week was because American military aid to Kyiv was running out. House Speaker Mike Johnson said in a letter to the White House that “additional funding for Ukraine is dependent on the passage of amendments to reform our nation’s border security laws.” And he said that without changes in the border law, aid to Ukraine will not be accepted.

Here, with reference to the representative Alexandra Ustinova, the journalists wrote that the military ammunition reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were reduced so much that the units could not respond to Russian attacks. And he said that Ukraine has begun to build multi-layered defenses in parts of the front line because if US military support ends, Ukraine will soon switch to a more defensive approach to war.

At the same time, an unnamed Ukrainian military official confirmed to ABC News that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had stopped “all offensive operations” due to a lack of ammunition. And the air defense force’s success rate of 35% is significantly lower than in the past. After all, on December 29, the Ukrainian Air Force said it shot down 71% of the missiles fired by Russia, and a few days later, on January 2, it shot down 72% of the missiles used to attack from Moscow.

Russia has been stockpiling missiles throughout the fall, Western officials say, and missile and drone strikes are expected to continue under severe winter conditions. This, in turn, due to a depleted energy system, could cause major power shortages, the journalists concluded.

Olesya Krasnolutskaya and Victor Kovalchuk, expert on international issues in Sotsiopolis

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