GDP: how much will the Peruvian economy grow in 2023?

This year 2023 Peru The year began with social conflicts and strikes that prevented the economy from taking off, but what can we expect from economic growth?

Until last year Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) GDP is estimated to grow from 3% to 3.5% this year, but at a recent conference, MEF chief Alex Contreras indicated that growth will exceed 3.1%.

Contreras indicated that this increase of more than 3% will be due to domestic fiscal momentum and improving conditions in the international economy.

However, forecasts by companies and organizations suggest that the economic growth Peru is much lower than the MEF forecast.

The latest review of macroeconomic expectations by the Central Reserve Bank (CRB), conducted among analysts, financial companies and non-financial companies, indicates that GDP growth this year will be between 2% and 2.6%.

Those forecasts, which previously ranged from 2.5% to 2.9%, are downgraded after the uncertainty reported in the report. peruvian market due to social conflict.

Organizations such as Scotiabank and Credicorp Capital now estimate that Peruvian GDP will grow by 2.1% and 2%, respectively, while growth of 2.6% and 2.3% was previously forecast.

Similarly, studies by Macroconsult and Thorne & Associates suggest that growth will be much lower as they show the economy will only grow by 1.9% and 1.5% respectively.

to the panorama social conflicts added scenario of early elections. The possibility of elections always causes changes in forecasts because they create uncertainty about what might happen in the country.

slowdown

The country is currently in the process of slowing down after data released at the end of 2022, when it grew by just 2.68%.

Low growth is associated with the expansion of sectors with a large contribution to economysuch as the mining and hydrocarbon sectors, as well as manufacturing, together account for just over 30% of the national GDP.

“This growth is lower than expected, mainly because important sectors such as mining saw near-zero growth in 2022 and manufacturing, which accounts for almost 17% of GDP, grew slowly due to higher than expected costs. , commented former Economy Minister Luis Miguel Castilla a few weeks ago.

With this panorama, the economic projection Peru for the next months is still uncertain.

“The INEI data still does not reflect the impact of the strikes and demonstrations of recent weeks, and this will be reflected in the production of the first months of this year, with which an economic downturn in some sectors of the economy should be expected. Key sectors such as hotels and restaurants that have been recovering can be expected to show lower levels than in previous months, especially in areas where there is the most social conflict,” said Silvana Huanki, professor at the School of Public Health. University of the Pacific management, a few days ago.

Recall that the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of America expected growth in the country of less than 3%, and the scenario of an economic downturn around the world for this 2023 is not ruled out.