The unfavorable scenario for Ukraine assumes a fall in GDP next year of 12.5% and inflation of 40%.
Ukraine may need between $39.5 billion and $57 billion in external financing by 2023. Interfax-Ukraine reported this on Friday, December 23, citing IMF materials for the Monitoring Program involving the Board of Directors (PMB ).
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“The main scenario assumes that external financing needs in 2023 will reach $39.5 billion, assuming no monetary financing (from the NBU – ed.) and financing of domestic government bonds corresponding to 80% of rollover,” the fund said.
The IMF explained that another $8 billion was added to this amount, which Ukraine could master as part of the recovery, although the government estimates that its capabilities are higher – at $17 billion.
“In the worst case scenario, the impact of deteriorating macroeconomic forecasts on revenues and expenditures (including spending on social needs and support for energy companies) will lead to an increase in the budget deficit, which will lead to an increase in need for external financing. of $9.5 billion … So, under this scenario, the total need for external financing can reach up to $57 billion,” said the fund’s experts.
The unfavorable scenario assumes a decline in GDP next year of 12.5% and inflation of 40%, a decrease in international reserves to $18 billion against $21 billion in the baseline scenario, as well also an increase in state budget spending to 68.8% of GDP against 56.5% in the baseline scenario. expanding the deficit from 9.1% to 16.8% of GDP.
In the indicative table presented in the documents, there is no funding from the IMF itself, although Ukraine, when developing the draft state budget for 2023, called the Fund one of the three main creditors and donors next year along with EU and USA. Meanwhile, the IMF notes $18 billion in loans from the EU, $14 billion in bilateral grants (the government expects the main amount from the United States), $2 billion in loans from the World Bank, as well as $1.5 billion from other IFIs (EBRD, EIB) and other bilateral projects.
Earlier, the Ministry of Economy said that in November the decline of Ukraine’s GDP exceeded 40%. Overall, for the current year, the forecast for the economic decline worsened to 33.2%.
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Source: korrespondent
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