Ukraine has liberated almost the entire territory of the Kharkiv region, continues to advance in the Kherson region and fights in the Donetsk region. The initiative in the war has been passed in Ukraine?
The struggle for the initiative is the most important condition of any war. Strategic initiative – the ability of one side or another in a military conflict to impose on the enemy the place, time and nature of hostilities on favorable terms for themselves.
Since the end of August, Ukraine seized the initiative with an offensive, first in Kherson, then in the direction of Kharkov, and Russia’s actions were the main response. Before that, Ukraine defended and reacted. So, is this a turning point in the war?
What will APU do next?
Ukrainian troops completely liquidated the Izyum ledge hanging over Kharkiv and Donbass and drove out Russian units in the east on the banks of Oskol, and in the north – beyond the state border.
Israeli military expert David Gendelman believes that Ukraine has the strength and reserves to conduct offensive operations, but these plans have pluses and minuses.
“There are reasons for the continuation of offensives in the future: building a victory until the enemy can organize defenses on new lines, not balancing him, or rather, not giving him the opportunity to return on the balance in which he was knocked out by this offensive, and the desire to have more time before the fall when rain and mud slows down progress,” he said.
The Israeli expert calls the possible fatigue and the state of the troops as arguments against: “They (reserves) undoubtedly still exist, but they did not report to us exactly how many and when they will arrive at line, after which it is impossible to throw more in the battle and must be protected until additional reserves and connections that have been defeated are restored.
At the same time, he noted that it is quite difficult to predict the direction in which Ukraine can start a new development.
Theoretically, the Armed Forces of Ukraine could continue the offensive in the Luhansk region, but there could be many risks due to the extended communication, which could result in attackers entering the cauldron or being drawn into battles with Russian forces, which will launch a counter. – offensives.
Russia responded
Experts believe that Russia can respond not in front, but with strikes on civilian infrastructure, which is already happening.
After that, Ukraine will get new weapons from the West. For example, operational-tactical missiles MGM-140 ATACMS with a range of up to 300 kilometers, Western-made tanks and more.
Henry Shlottman, an analyst and US Army veteran, believes that on the battlefield, the Russians lack tactical and operational flexibility. They cannot respond in time to the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. “The General Staff may have understood what was happening – but down the chain of command, to the division and brigade commanders, the transmission of information was too slow. During the rapid Ukrainian offensive, this became a problem. And if nothing changes, slowly the Russians will lose this war,” the expert believes.
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.