Grain agreement. Does it produce results?

There are not enough ships to transport Ukrainian grains, and most of what can be exported does not go to the countries in distress. Ukraine also suspects Russia of exporting stolen grain through Crimean ports.

Bread in Lebanon is scarce and very expensive. In recent weeks, people have been queuing for hours in front of bakeries. Despite state subsidies, a package of six pita breads now officially costs 13,000 Lebanese pounds, which is equivalent to about 8.5 euros. On the black market, the price is twice as high, and continues to rise.

Waiting for wheat, not corn

So it is a glimmer of hope that the first cargo ship to leave Ukraine under the four-way grain deal is headed for Lebanon. But shortly before arriving at the port of destination – Tripoli – the ship Razoni with 26,000 tons of corn on board changed course. According to the official version, the buyer refused to receive the shipment, which was five months late. Furthermore, Lebanon mostly needs wheat, not corn, Hani Bushali, president of the food import consortium, told dpa. So Razoni had to continue sailing in the Mediterranean for a few days, until a new buyer of corn was found in Turkey.

In many countries, wheat is the number one food. However, subsequent ships were also loaded with corn or sunflower meal from Ukraine.

Who makes freight decisions?

Why is this happening? The Joint Coordinating Center (JCC) established by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN for the safe transportation of grain from Ukrainian ports did not respond to DW’s request. The JCC website states: “Shipping companies make decisions about the movement of their ships based on their business and interests.”

In addition, only small shipments of grain are purchased by the UN World Food Program and delivered directly to hungry people around the world. For the other twelve cargo ships that have left Ukraine, the JCC has no right to decide where the grain goes. Former ports of destination are, for example, Turkey, UK, Ireland or South Korea.

“These are commercial deals,” UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric defends the procedure: the vessels “are contracted as part of commercial deals,” it’s “quite normal that they go where they must be by contract.”

Slow export of grain

Twelve cargo ships – and about 22 million tons of wheat still stored in Ukraine. Grain exports are sluggish, and for several reasons.

First, currently, Ukrainian ports can operate at only a fraction of their pre-war capacities.

Second, when ships enter the Black Sea, Istanbul checks to see if they are carrying smuggled weapons. On return, a check to see if there are any stolen grains on board. These checks cost time and money.

Third, there is no assurance that it will be possible to charter a sufficient number of vessels. Many insurers do not want to insure transportation from conflict zones. As a result, only part of the grain currently stored in Ukraine can be exported.

Is Russia transporting stolen grain by ship?

Added to this is the dispute over grains allegedly stolen by Russia. The Syrian-flagged ship Laodicea was detained in Tripoli a few days ago. According to the Ukrainian embassy in Beirut, the ship was carrying 10,000 tons of stolen Ukrainian grain.

According to official documents, Laodicea arrived from the port of Kavkaz, located on the coast of the Kerch Strait, the second largest port of Russia in the Black Sea-Azov basin in terms of cargo transfer. Since this port is not in a war zone, ships sailing from there are not under the control of the JCC. However, according to the Reuters news agency, only vessels with a maximum draft of five meters can moor at Kavkaz port. The Ukrainian embassy has also provided the authorities in Beirut with satellite images that they say will prove that the cargo ship first approached the port of Feodosiya in Crimea empty and then left with a full load.

Ukrainian diplomats suspect that grain from Russian-occupied territories in southern Ukraine has been smuggled out of the country, a view shared by prominent Turkish security expert Yeruk Isik of the Istanbul Institute of the Middle East.

The transponder is off

According to an investigation by the British edition of the Financial Times (FT), the story of Laodicea is far from the only one. In May, based on satellite images, the FT identified at least eight ships loaded with grain not in Russia, but in the sanctioned port of Sevastopol, in Crimea. According to the official shipping documents, from the beginning wars significantly more ships left the port of Kavkaz than before, and their actual route was not always traceable.

According to the rules, international cargo ships are required to continuously provide their position data via a transponder. However, in the case of Russian cargo ships in the Black Sea, these transponders are often turned off. According to the FT, it is possible that these ships loaded only a small amount of legal Russian grain at the port of Kavkaz, and then mixed it with stolen Ukrainian grain at one of the Crimean ports. In this case, according to experts, it is very difficult to track whether the shipments contain grain stolen from Ukraine.

In the Middle East turn a blind eye to the source of the grain

Often these Russian ships with grain are sent to Middle Eastern ports. Among the buyers are Iran, Egypt or Libya. The grain is in such demand there that the authorities usually do not doubt its origin. However, the main customer was and remains Damascus. According to reports, at least 90,000 tons of grain have arrived in Syria since the start of the war. Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad is a close ally of Putin.

The ship Laodicea, detained in Lebanon, is also on its way to Syria. The Lebanese authorities allowed him to continue his journey without revealing any irregularities. The site marinetrafic.com recorded the ship’s last position on August 4, near the Syrian port of Tartus.