A full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine entails famine thousands of kilometers away from the fighting.
This is stated in a new study by scientists from Michigan State University (USA), the results of which were published in the journal Nature, the university’s press service reports.
Scientists note that Ukraine is one of the leading exporters of winter grains, with the largest total exports of wheat and barley, and trades predominantly with lower- and middle-income countries. However, due to the war:
- The regions that are the main agricultural areas of Ukraine were directly affected. As a result, the production of winter wheat, barley and oats accounted for only 30% of the total production of these three crops in Ukraine in 2021;
- In addition to losses directly from the war, in other regions of Ukraine, yield declines may also have occurred due to war-related mismanagement of agricultural land.
Almost three years of war in the “breadbasket of the world” led to the destruction of cultivated areas and the forced flight of workers growing, harvesting and processing generous harvests of wheat, barley and oats. trade and upended food supply systems,” the article notes.
To determine just how deep the war’s impact was, the scientists conducted a unique study, relying on satellite imagery to quantify the loss of arable land and using a complex technique called meta-connectivity and network analysis to analyze connections within a region, between neighboring regions and between distant regions.
The study found that in the case of wheat, barley and oats, the war has a much greater impact on distant countries than on those neighboring Ukraine, and disproportionately harms poor countries, the article says.
It is noted that countries remote from Ukraine have suffered disproportionately, facing higher costs and fewer opportunities to provide themselves with food. In particular, due to rapidly rising prices or the lack of alternative suppliers:
- in Africa, low-income countries such as Sierra Leone, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Somalia are the hardest hit;
- in Europe, Montenegro, Albania and Belarus suffered the most;
- in Asia, affected countries include Turkey, Syria, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Nepal and Bhutan.
Over time, major exporting countries such as the United States, Canada and Australia stepped up, partially filling the gaps left by Ukraine. However, Ukraine’s main trading partners are countries with lower average incomes and middle-income countries whose populations cannot afford rapidly rising food prices.
So, while major exporting countries may be able to close the export gap, reduced availability continues to pose a threat to global food availability, the scientists note. – Some countries are trying to create new crops at the expense of forests or other land to increase food production, but this may further impact environmental sustainability.
Source: Michigan State University, Nature
Source: Racurs
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.