Lack of shells. Threat of front collapse

Russia’s offensive, which is expected to begin this summer, could destroy the front line in Ukraine in areas where it focuses its main forces.

A new large-scale Russian offensive on the front is expected in the summer. The authoritative American publication Politico, citing senior Ukrainian military personnel who served under the command of Valeriy Zaluzhny, who spoke on condition of anonymity, writes that the picture of the military looks grim. The front line where the Russian army is launching an offensive is at great risk of collapsing, as the Russian Federation has a vast manpower advantage and has successfully used guided bombs against Ukrainian positions in recent weeks .

Lack of weapons

Against the backdrop of a shortage of weapons, especially due to the delay of an aid package in the US Congress, and a shortage of soldiers in Ukraine, “Russian generals may succeed,” wrote Politico.

“And such a failure, especially in the midst of election campaigns in America and Europe, could revive Western pressure for negotiations that would clearly favor Russia, leaving the Kremlin free to renew the conflict in the future as it chooses,” the material said. .

Everything now depends on where Russia decides to send its forces during the offensive. The aggressor country has intensified missile and drone attacks on Ukraine – from Kharkov and Sumy in the north to Odessa in the south, so it is difficult to predict where the main Russian attack will be concentrated, writes Politico.

“There is nothing that will help Ukraine today, because there are no serious technologies that can compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops that Russia is likely to throw at us. We do not have these technologies, and the West does not have them in sufficient quantity,” said a senior military source.

He believes that only the resilience of the Ukrainians and the mistakes of the Russian commanders can change the violent dynamics.

F-16 won’t they help?

The official also said that the Russians are learning and improving quickly, not giving the Defense Forces a “second chance” on the battlefield. Therefore, Western weapons often arrive late. This also applies to F-16 aircraft, which are scheduled to arrive in Ukraine in the summer. Russia is now testing its array of missiles as it prepares to shoot down Western fighters in Ukraine.

Now the front needs more traditional weapons – howitzers, shells and missiles, as well as more people, and the Ukrainian authorities are avoiding large-scale mobilization.

“We don’t just have a military crisis, we have a political crisis… Russia is now gathering resources and will be ready to launch a major attack around August, and maybe earlier,” said one of the officers.

Bloomberg also writes about the huge shortage of ammunition in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The flow of Western military aid to Ukraine has fallen sharply, with some Ukrainian arms firing only one shot a day to maintain their stockpiles, according to officials from allied countries familiar with the recent developments on the front lines.

The shortage persists despite the growing awareness of Western leaders of the costs of delay. They know it will cost more to defend NATO territory if Russia moves deeper into Ukraine, according to an official familiar with the aid discussions.

Another perspective

At the same time, President Vladimir Zelensky said that Ukraine does not need to mobilize 500 thousand people. On Wednesday, April 3, at a press conference in Kyiv, the president thanked the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, for the audit.

“We don’t need half a million. I thank the commander in chief for the audit. It is important that he found strength within the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The corresponding number that is not on the front is on the front,” he said.

Responding to reporters’ questions about how many will be mobilized in the Defense Forces, Zelensky said he was “not ready to say that yet.”