An increase in NATO defense spending by 1% of GDP is equal to an increase in Russian spending by 24% of its GDP.
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Wall Street Journal columnist Holman Jenkins reminds us of this.
What Putin did not count on when starting the war with Ukraine was that NATO would eventually unite, arm itself and annex two new states, advanced ones at that. And although rearmament is not happening at a rapid pace, in the long term it will have the effect of making the West more powerful than Russia, Jenkins suggests.
The observer’s main argument is that the planned increase in actual military spending by 70% in 2024, which is about 2% of GDP, is a difficult step to repeat. At the same time, increasing NATO defense spending by just 1% of GDP would be equivalent to increasing Russian spending by 24%, the analyst says.
Therefore, it is quite easy to say when Putin should be ready to stop hostilities – in 2025.
The West will not back down
Despite the fact that in early December, US Senate Republicans blocked an attempt to pass a 2024 supplemental funding bill that, among other things, provided funds for aid to Ukraine, according to Jenkins, “it would be extremely idiotic to allow ways to even hope for a moment that the West will refuse victory for lack of several billions that will help Ukraine survive next year.”
According to the commentator, every dollar helps ensure the investment already made in restarting the Western defense industrial base. At the same time, a battle-hardened Ukrainian army is being created, which will be the pillar of European security for decades.
Western weapons and equipment will be able to compensate for Putin’s ability to throw poorly trained recruits into battle on Tuesday and return them in body bags on Friday, Jenkins writes.
Ukraine does not and has never had the opportunity to attack air bases, military factories and transport hubs on Russian territory, but its resource is the availability of time to prepare and familiarize itself with weapons and equipment.
Trump’s rise to power may justify Putin’s expectations
Given this, Putin, for all his cheerful display of false confidence, may be envisioning the counter-intuitive possibility of a second Donald Trump presidency.
A definite solution for Putin may be the coming to power of Trump, whom Russian television propaganda portrays as a Western leader who understands and accepts Russia’s interests. Trump’s victory can be presented as the final success of Putin’s military policy and cover up the failure of the Russian president with the capture of Kyiv.
Jenkins notes that Trump’s refusal to participate in the GOP debate meant that no one heard a detailed explanation of his usually loud promise to end the war in 24 hours. There is also the question of whether Trump, if elected, will have the authority to follow through on his promises.
Source: Racurs
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.