There are several versions of who will replace Yevgeny Prigozhin and what will happen to his mercenaries.
For almost a decade, Yevgeny Prigozhin created the Wagner paramilitary group. It has been at the center of Russia’s war against Ukraine and has also painted a picture of the Kremlin’s influence around the world by supporting President Vladimir Putin’s allies in Africa and Syria.
After Prigozhin’s death, there was little speculation about the future of the PMC, in particular, who would take the leader’s place and what would happen to the mercenaries.
Who will now lead Wagner?
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death likely led to a “certain renewal” of the group, said Dr. Joana de Deus Pereira, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute ((Rusi). According to him, the PMC will receive a new name, but its activities will not change.
“We have to look at Wagner not just as a person, but as an ecosystem, as a hydra with many heads and many interests in Africa,” Pereira told the BBC.
Atlantic Council security analyst Ruslan Trad also shares his opinion and believes that Wagner will now be headed by a representative of Russian military intelligence. At the same time, it will be problematic for Putin to find a “purse” for the group, since the sponsor does not have to pose a danger to his regime.
“I think it will be more difficult to find a new financier, because (Wagner – ed.) has good commanders, but money is important here. Perhaps (they will be imprisoned – ed.) someone from close Putin’s circle,” the expert said. .
Journalist Benoit Bringer, who directed the documentary The Rise of Wagner, added that GRU General Andrei Averyanov was one of the main contenders.
“Putin probably needed time to covertly arrange the transfer. This explains why he waited two months before removing Prigozhin,” he added.
The fate of mercenaries in Ukraine
Dr. believes Joana de Deus Pereira that Prigozhin’s death is unlikely to affect the course of the Russian war in Ukraine. He added that the return of Wagner’s mercenaries to the battlefield was also unlikely, at least in the short term. At the same time, a number of Russian propagandists reported that after Prigozhin’s death, the number of “Wagnerites” who wanted to sign a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry increased.
Recall that the American company Planet Labs this week produced satellite images of the main camp of Wagner in Osipovichi in Belarus. So the image showed that in the camp they started dismantling the tents for the mercenaries. On Thursday, Radio Liberty determined that 101 of the 273 tents in the camp had been demolished.
Today, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko assured that the “Wagnerites”, despite the death of Prigozhin, will remain in the country.
“Wagner lived, Wagner is alive and Wagner will live in Belarus, no matter how much anyone wants it … And these pictures from space, that we are dismantling something … We are removing additional tents – no that we need so much. . The core remains, then someone went on vacation, who generally decided to live on the sideline, but the phones, addresses, passwords, appearances in this core are known. Within a few days everyone will be here , up to 10 thousand people . Now there is no need to keep them here. Therefore, they did not flee “, said Lukashenka.
However, the future of the Wagner militants is not exactly clear, with several posts on social media suggesting that many mercenaries have openly threatened Putin over Prigozhin’s death.
Africa and Syria
PMC Wagner has become a key pillar of Russian foreign policy, with forces helping support the governments of Syria, Mali, the Central African Republic and Libya in exchange for mining rights.
Expert Ruslan Trad believes that Wagner is so strongly integrated into the defense infrastructure of African countries that Prigozhin’s death will not disrupt their operations.
“This does not affect the local commanders because the operations are separate, they have different resources for this, and until now they continue to recruit for the operations in Syria and Africa,” he explained.
Trad’s opinion is shared by journalist Bringer. According to him, the PMC is “important to Africa” in terms of promoting Russia’s interests.
“The structure, of course, will exist there, perhaps no longer under the name of Wagner, but with a new leader who is loyal to the Kremlin,” he said.
Anton Mardasov, a visiting fellow at the Middle East Institute’s Syria Program, said that even after Prigozhin’s failed coup in Russia, most of Wagner’s commanders abroad did not come under Kremlin repression to avoid “weakening the general position of Moscow.”
At the same time, he said, more mercenary companies are vying for Wagner’s role in Syria. After the rebellion in June, the “Wagnerites” were offered to go to the rival PMC Redoubt.
“Redoubt worked in Syria in parallel with Wagner for a long time. The military in Syria is betting on Redoubt, but they are afraid of quick steps,” said Mardasov.
Is Wagner about to be erased from memory?
Therefore, in the medium term, it seems unlikely that Prigozhin’s death will have a significant impact on Wagner’s activities. But in the long run, the grouping of operations will likely evolve into something new, added Rusi’s Emily Ferris.
“Most likely, Wagner will be divided into two parts – the leaderless group in Belarus will be disbanded, and the rest of the factions operating abroad will become something else that can be an instrument of Russia’s foreign policy,” he said.
“Wagner’s name may disappear, but not the mercenaries in the field and the method created by Prigozhin, no,” added Bringer.
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Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.