New details about the composition of Wagner’s units approaching Moscow on June 24 suggest that Prigozhin is unlikely to be able to conduct active battles in the capital.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed the unsuccessful campaign of the “Wagnerites” against Moscow and the fate of their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. This was stated in the ISW report following the results of Sunday, June 25th.
The report cited the Russian opposition publication Meduza, which, citing unnamed sources in the Kremlin, said that Prigozhin first tried to contact the Russian presidential administration on June 24 when the Wagner fighters were moving north of Rostov-on-Don in the direction of Moscow, but Putin refused to talk to Prigogine.
Meduza said that after Prigozhin noticed the lack of broad military support for Wagner’s actions and changed his mind about his prospects, the Kremlin switched to negotiations with Lukashenka, head of the Office of the President of Russia Anton Vaino and Ambassador of Russia to Belarus Boris Gryzlov.
Analysts say that the consequences of Wagner’s armed uprising are not fully known, as well as whether the agreement will be implemented, whether all participating parties will fully comply with it, what the Kremlin wants to do and of the Russian Ministry of Defense to Wagner’s men, and whether the Wagner militants would cooperate despite Prigogine’s wishes.
In their opinion, the consequences of the Lukashenko-Prigozhin agreement for the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense remain unclear.
The report also notes that some Russian sources suggest that Alexei Dyumin, the current governor of the Tula region and a former bodyguard of Putin, could replace Shoigu as defense minister, though ISW could not confirm this. these suggestions.
“Any change in the leadership of the Ministry of Defense would be a significant victory for Prigozhin, who explained his armed rebellion by directly accusing Shoigu and Gerasimov of killing thousands of Russian soldiers in Ukraine,” said of analysis.
New details about the composition of Wagner’s units closing in on Moscow on June 24 suggest that Prigozhin is unlikely to be able to actively fight in the capital without additional support. Perhaps this is why Prigozhin became more susceptible to an agreement with Lukashenka.
In addition, the report notes that the ability of Russian troops to conduct offensive and defensive operations in Ukraine does not appear to have been significantly affected by the Wagner armed rebellion.
However, some Russian sources used the armed rebellion as a way to justify the failure of the Russians against the background of the victory of the Defense Forces achieved on June 24 and 25.
Earlier, the former director of the CIA said that Putin is more vulnerable now than at any time in two decades, and that Prigozhin “must be careful of open windows.”
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Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.