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Erdogan won. Definitions for Ukraine and the world

Erdogan maintains close relations with Russia, but also provides military aid to Ukraine.

During the presidential campaign in Turkey, there was much talk that Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 20-year rule would come to an end. But Erdogan won again and the whole world has to endure it.

Political Capital at War

Turkey’s global strategic importance, which has risen sharply amid the war in Ukraine, can be judged by the number of world leaders who rushed to congratulate Erdogan on Sunday night’s election victory.

One of the first was Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to him, the reason for Erdogan’s victory is his alleged “independent foreign policy”, although in fact foreign policy is not at all the focus of Turkish elections.

However, the presidents of the United States and France immediately congratulated Erdogan on his victory. Although they do not like Ankara’s rapprochement with Moscow and the attack on democratic freedoms in the country, for Western countries Turkey is the most important ally, although relations with it are complex and not always predictable. Turkey is an important member of the NATO military alliance, participating in all its missions.

Erdogan maintains close ties with Russia while providing military aid to Ukraine. His mediation helped secure a partial settlement between the warring nations.

Relations with the Russian Federation

Considering Ankara’s consistent position of supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity and helping to resist Russia’s armed aggression, Erdogan’s victory will certainly not change Turkey’s relations with Ukraine. But Erdogan’s victory could also deepen Ankara’s ties with Moscow.

After the election, Erdogan will need to find funds to implement large-scale social initiatives announced before the election, such as raising salaries for state employees or freezing gas tariffs. And not at all the fact that these funds can be found through Western investment or the liberalization of the domestic market.

In the future, this could create new risks for Ukraine, for which Kyiv needs to prepare now.

Contact with the West

Turkey is a key country for solving the migration problem in Europe: after the migration crisis in 2015, in exchange for a large sum of money and some visa incentives, Erdogan made every effort to ensure that the flow of migrants passing through Turkey cannot reach the shores of EU member states.

Joe Biden, who calls Erdogan an autocrat, has expressed his willingness to approve the sale of F16 fighters for $20 billion and open a new chapter in relations with Turkey. But the US president must first convince the heads of the House and Senate foreign affairs committees to approve the sale.

But the sale of Western fighter jets to Turkey, for example, is probably not enough reason for relations between Ankara and Moscow to deteriorate: during the election campaign, Erdogan said that Turkey and Russia had of a special relationship, and recalled his personal relations with Putin, thanks to which he managed to facilitate the grain deal.

American diplomats have traveled to Ankara more than once, trying to convince Erdogan to crack down on Turkish businesses that evade Western sanctions against Russia, but without much success. Turkey does not want to impose sanctions on Russia, and Washington does not want to impose a second sanction on Turkey, fearing that it will push Erdogan into Putin’s arms.

With the re-election of Erdogan, the issue of Turkey’s possible entry into the EU was again put on hold, and now, unlike the situation 20 years ago, accession to the European Union, it seems, is one of the last places in the political Turkish agenda. president

Source: korrespondent

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