Restrictions on civil aviation flights in the airspace of Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and Russia will remain in effect until 2029. Such a forecast was published in a report by the European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation (Eurocontrol).
No return to “normal” routes (prior to the closure of Ukrainian and Russian airspace) is expected before the end of the seven-year horizon, the report says.
The forecast for 2023-2029 indicates air routes that were used between March 2022 and January 2023.
Experts note that the European aviation industry continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic thanks to the good results obtained in the summer of 2022. One of the key factors behind the recovery is China’s opening of borders in January 2023.
The aviation industry is being seriously impacted by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Eurocontrol stressed that the air cargo segment was hit hard due to the limited operation of key cargo carriers. Among the additional risks not included in the forecast, analysts note the prolongation of the Russian war against Ukraine, which could further worsen the economic situation and geopolitical tensions. In addition, the risks for the aviation industry are created by the lack of refining capacity and oil prices.
Upcoming airspace and network changes (eg unexpected closure/reopening, new routes) and changes in airline route selection are not modeled in the forecast. For now, we assume that the airspace of Ukraine and Russia will remain closed until the end of 2029.
Recall that Kyiv completely closed its airspace for civil aircraft on February 24, 2022. Soon, the EU countries and the USA closed their skies to Russian aircraft.
Source: Racurs
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