Russian invasion: how did the war in Ukraine change world geopolitics?

Russian invasion Ukraine changed the world order a year ago, accelerating the split of globalization, and contributed to its re-creation based on the logic of blocs with Russia in the Chinese orbit and Europe in the American one.

dominance and blocks

war Tensions grew, the process of consolidation of large blocs around Beijing and Washington accelerated.

Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Balkans, Africa, the Indo-Pacific… Various regions are the scene of a hidden struggle for influence – economic, military or diplomatic – between powers such as China, the European Union, the United States, Russia or Turkey.

The conflict, for example, has weakened Russia’s position in its former Central Asian republics and given Turkey greater diplomatic opportunities.

For the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, “everything is a weapon: energy, data, infrastructure, migration.”

“This chaotic realignment is real, but probably transitory,” said Pierre Razou of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES).

“Mechanically, the end of the war will see weakening and wear and tear Russia and from Europe. The two big winners could be the US and China,” he told AFP.

Will this mean a total division of the world? In the current context, developing countries such as Brazil or India are trying to appear as “balancing” powers, avoiding a clear unification.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva even advocates the creation of a “group of countries” to “end” the war in Ukrainean initiative he has proposed to his US and French counterparts and hopes to propose to China’s Xi Jinping.

The position of China and the vassalage of Russia

China, which sees itself as the world’s leading power in 2049, is wondering, like the United States, how to put this war on its agenda.

Beijing supports Russia from Vladimir Putinalthough he tries to make his position seem acceptable to Westerners.

A report from the intelligence services of Estonia, a former Soviet republic and EU member, described it as a “mistake” to treat Xi’s “reduced support” for Putin’s war as a “demonstration of distancing.”

While Beijing isn’t helping Moscow the way Washington is helping Kyiv, “economic relations have strengthened,” says Alice Ekman, a China expert at the European Union’s Institute for Security Studies (EUISS).

But RussiaPossessing a larger nuclear arsenal than China, it runs the risk of becoming a subordinate power.

“Russia is not in a position to negotiate with China, which will take what it wants from Russia and not give it what it wants,” such as weapons or some components, says Agatha Desmarais, head of forecasting at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) . ).

According to Razu, “in order to avoid economic and strategic vassalage” Moscow seeks “to diversify its geopolitical, economic and strategic relations: Turkey, the Middle East, Iran, Africa.”

Europe, strength or pawn?

The EU is at a crossroads. Will the war allow it to reassert itself as a major third player, or will it turn it into a pawn of Washington?

“Europe has shown its ability to resist, to react quickly from the very beginning warin military support, in helping refugees, in reducing energy dependence,” said a participant in high-level European decisions at the beginning of the conflict.

By supporting Kyiv, Europe wants to “strengthen relations with the United States, but understands that one day it may find itself alone” if the ultra-republican and isolationist camp wins in Washington, Razu said.

Spurred on by its more Atlanticist members who see their security only under the auspices of the US and NATO, the EU will seek to reduce other strategic dependencies such as critical raw materials, semiconductors, food, etc.

According to French researcher Bruno Tertret of the Foundation for Strategic Studies (FRS), Europeans are at risk of being at the wall if they do not respond.

And the Pacific Ocean?

“The relationship between the United States and China will define the 21st century,” Barack Obama predicted in 2009, paving the way for America’s pivot toward Asia at the expense of Europe.

war with Ukraine According to Tertre, it represents a “strategic diversion” for Washington.

In addition, US President Joe Biden, a Democrat, must strike a balance between those who want a “quick” solution to the conflict and supporters of the Republican Party who do not want to point weapons at Ukraineaccording to Giovanna De Mayo, a researcher at George Washington University.

On the other hand, the case Ukraine This allows you to prepare for a possible conflict with China over Taiwan, US commander in Japan James Bierman recently reminded the Financial Times.

End of globalization?

Economic sanctions imposed by Europe, the US and other allies Ukraine Russia has dealt a very strong blow to the already weakened globalized free trade that has been advancing since the Cold War.

These measures “bridge the gap in the diplomatic space between declarations of inefficiency and potentially lethal military interventions,” Desmarais summarizes in his book Backfire.

Decisions such as capping the maximum price of a barrel of Russian oil taken by the G7 and the EU thus triggered “the end of the world market,” said Patrick Pouyanne, executive president of TotalEnergies.

But by undermining the idea of ​​a world price, they could have another effect: allowing India and China, which do not impose sanctions, to buy Russian oil at a lower price, he warns.

Restrictions on Russian goods exacerbate previous blows to global trade, either by protectionist decisions in the name of sovereignty or by external factors such as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on supply chains.

the cost of living

war This has driven up the prices of the three essentials of humankind—food, heating, electricity—in many regions, from developing Africa to prosperous Europe.

This “cost of living crisis” was looming even before the pandemic, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest global risk report.

While some governments have tried to limit its effects, 2022 was “marked” by an “unprecedented wave” of social demonstrations that often led to protests against the authorities, according to a study by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, which is affiliated with the German Social Democratic Party. SPD.

The Middle East and North Africa, major food importers, are the two most vulnerable regions, especially when the poorest countries have little financial room to maneuver. (AFP)