France is about to enter winter, and concerns about electricity supply are being confirmed. As many nuclear power plants remain shut and French consumption is controlled by the authorities like milk on fire, the grid’s chief this Friday published an update on its forecasts for the coming months.
The manager is concerned about the situation expected next January, assessing the risk of tension in the network.”raised“. Delays accumulated by EDF for restarting power plants play a role.Availability of the nuclear fleet today is slightly below RTE’s central forecast for early September“, says the company, which specifically points out the responsibility”social movementsceasing reloading operations during the month of October“. In September and October, CGT called on power plant agents to stop maintenance work to slow down.
As a result, France will have 3 to 4 gigawatts less than RTE’s previous estimates. Thus, the group expects the reach of the nuclear fleet to reach “40 GW in early January“. Which leads to “Enhanced vigilance for supply security during the month of January“. In early 2023 “Expected reductions in consumption, especially in the industrial sector, are unlikely to offset the projected decline in nuclear generation;“, the report states.
Therefore, a few red Ecowatt signals may be sent out in January to demand effort from consumers, but they will depend on “mainly from the climatic conditions and possible occurrence of even moderate frosts“. Recall that the red Ecowatt signal is sent one day before the danger.shedding“, when RTE expects that there will not be enough electricity for everyone. In this case, he asks Enedis to prepare to shut down the power grid for two hours, and in turn the power grid representing about 200,000 households. A situation that can be avoided if individuals and businesses significantly reduce their consumption after receiving the alert on the web or in the Ecowatt app.
Reduced risk due to reduced consumption
However, the situation could have been worse. The decline in electricity consumption is indeed confirmed every week. In his latest publication, the manager thus states that “Electricity consumption in France has decreased compared to previous years, recalculated for weather and calendar effects,” up about 5.4% over the past week and 6.6% over the month just ended. A situation that is explained mainly by the significant decrease in consumption by large industry compared to previous years. “A diminishing effect is also noticeable in the residential sector (and to a lesser extent tertiary) but should be confirmed in the coming weeks as temperatures drop.– they say in the company. Domestic sobriety efforts also play a role.
The network will therefore be under tension, butextreme situations […] are not the most likely“, and”France does not threaten under any circumstances.eclipse”, i.e. complete loss of control of the electrical system,” reassures RTE. The manager also notes that forward electricity prices remain high, integrating “excess risk premium“. The gas network, meanwhile, is not currently bothering RTE, which indicates that the reserves are complete. The same encouraging observation for the hydraulic system, which, despite the dry summer, has restored reserves.average of previous years“. Therefore, the French are urged to be alert to overcome the January period. The tension should ease from the end of February…until next winter.
Source: Le Figaro
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