Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has faced an unprecedented number of sanctions, leading the world.
Since February 24, there has not been a day in which some companies do not announce its release in the Russian market. Unexpectedly, the Russians discovered that they even imported nails and buttons.
In all, nearly three hundred Western brands have already left the country. Logistic chains built over decades were first broken by the closure of skies in the EU, USA and other countries for Russian aircraft, and then the fifth package of European sanctions, which banned those ships under the Russian flag entered European ports. and entry into the EU for trucks with Russian and Belarusian license plates.
In the early days of the war, rapid demand for many types of goods began, which in some cases resulted in a real shortage. And this is just the beginning.
Extremely dependent on imports
It appears that Russia relies on imports that in mid-April the Federal Customs Service even shut down access to information on imports and exports “to avoid miscalculations, speculation and inconsistencies. both. ” Experts directly say that some important branches of Russian industry are notably tied to substances imported from the EU and US. Thus, the dependence on imports in textiles and pharmaceuticals, electrical equipment, cars and computers exceeds 50%, while in the paper and chemical industries, as well as in metal products , its level varies from 30 to 50%.
Export is also a problem.
In the first half of 2021, 37% of Russia’s exports will be oil, 19% gas, 11% metals, 8% chemicals, 7% jewelry, 7% agriculture, 6% arms, 7% everything else.
The export of jewelry was closed, it was one of the first to fall under the embargo. Values for the foreign market are mainly provided by Almazy Rossii. Its shares on the Moscow stock exchange have fallen by half, on the more decent stock exchange more.
Russia’s exports of agricultural products will be equally reduced. This will be affected by logistical isolation resulting from penalties and increasing premiums for ship insurance from Russia. Also, the fall in food exports can be attributed to the decline of Russia’s seed fund, which will be significantly at least by 2023. The reason is that all the leading companies that supply selected seeds have refused to work in the Russian Federation. .
Exports of Russian metals could also fall catastrophically due to the sanctions imposed. It is relatively easy to replace them in the Western market.
Russia will not be able to refocus even on China’s large market, as Beijing has its own excess capacity for the production of steel and other metals, other than platinum and nickel.
In 2021, Russia sold weapons worth $ 30 billion. Major importers have phased out new deals. Thus, Greece, which is one of the top ten buyers of Russian weapons, plans to abandon them in 2023.
The Russian war against Ukraine showed that the combat characteristics of the occupier’s military equipment were far from what the Russians displayed at international exhibitions. It is anti-advertising for the Russian Federation in the global arms market.
Ukraine destroyed many Russian tanks and ships, so the aggressor had to restore its military potential and limit exports, losing markets.
About a third of all Russia’s exports are oil. It is expected that due to sanctions and active position of Western countries, Russia’s oil supply until 2023 will suffer greatly. Today, Russia’s oil is trading at 2021 prices, even as they rise this year. The discount for Russian black gold reaches 35%.
Source: korrespondent
