Not only the fate of the French, but of the whole of Europe depends on who wins the second round of the presidential election in France. What are Macron’s chances and why is Le Pen a threat to the EU?
The current President of France Emmanuel Macron and the chairman of the National Unity party Marine Le Pen will fight for the presidency in the second round of elections, to be held on April 24.
In the first round, Macron defeated Le Pen by nearly four percent, with just over 27 percent of the vote. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing party Insubordinate France, finished third in the race, supported by every fifth voter.
Representatives of traditional parties – socialists and conservatives – have suffered a historic setback. But, according to analysts, it’s too early for Macron to celebrate a victory, although he remains a career favorite in the election.
This was also demonstrated by the results of TV debates between two rivals, Macron and Le Pen, held on Wednesday, April 20. For nearly three hours, presidential candidates debated a range of issues, from social policy and climate change to the hijab ban and war in Ukraine.
Macron was well able to defend against Le Pen’s blows, who blamed him for lowering the standard of living of the French during his rule.
He himself first reminded his rival of the financial scandal in which he was involved and his possible relationship with Russia, and then criticized his plans regarding environmental policy and a ban on the wearing of veiled Muslim women’s clothing. on his face and head.
If that happens, Macron said, France would be the first country in the world to ban religious symbols and could lead to civil war.
At the end of the debate, Emmanuel Macron was the winner. This was confirmed during the opinion poll and 59 percent of respondents. But all observers are confident that the TV duel between Macron and Le Pen will be indefinite.
“It’s kind of a myth. It’s just one of many factors,” Arian Bogen, a political scientist at the University of Northern Umbria, said in an interview on French channel France 24.
Marine Le Pen lost in 2017 not because he conducted a massive debate, but because he proved his own incompetence.
And Bernard Sanan of the Elabe Institute for Sociological Research believes that both candidates, Macron and Le Pen, showed their weaknesses during the TV duel. Every second viewer considered Macron arrogant. And half continue to be afraid of Le Pen.
The battle for the votes of the left
Macron’s biggest problem is that he has successfully leveled all traditional parties. And after 5 years, neither the traditional conservatives nor the socialists have realized.
In the first round, they did not even get 10 percent of the votes and they became a resource for the second round. Actors, trade unions and former presidents Hollande and Sarkozy called for a vote for Macron. But they have no political support behind them.
The only significant reserve (22 per cent) was the voters of the left -wing party of Mélenchon, due to which Le Pen could not even get into the second round. But it will be very difficult for these supporters of GDR -style socialism to choose in the second round between Macron and Le Pen.
“Neither one nor the other,” the students wrote on a poster posted on the walls of Sorbonne University.
Mélenchon urged not to vote for the right in the second round of elections. But he did not speak directly about who needs to be supported. At the same time, his voters were divided. Initially, 33 percent of them wanted to vote for Macron, then the majority abstained.
Christophe Castaner, leader of Macron’s group in parliament, warned of abstentions: “Not making a choice is playing Russian roulette.”
Both Le Pen and Macron are fighting for the same voters, says Ariane Bogen: “Macron has taken a clear lean to the left, and right, because the conservatives have performed poorly.”
Regarding pension reform or environmental policy, in his opinion, it became clear: “But the deciding factor is the number of those who did not vote and did not vote. And not the quantity, but the quality.”
For Europeans and NATO, Le Pen is a threat
If you look at what lies behind the front of Le Pen’s social policy, it becomes clear that we are talking about radical and right-wing populist plans. For Europe, the election in Le Pen was a death blow. From issues of economic policy and transition to recognition of EU rights, Le Pen’s party is strongly opposed to views from the EU.
With a unified policy in Russia and Ukraine, if Le Pen is elected, it is possible to say goodbye. And the military implications for NATO’s future will be dramatic; France is essentially the only reliable military force in Europe.
During the televised debate, Le Pen said he was not against Europe, but he wanted to change Europe. Where Macron argues with him that “Europe is like a house in collective ownership,” which can’t be rebuilt like you’d like.
French voters on Sunday will have to choose between a reformist politician who, in difficult circumstances, sums up well in his first term of the presidency. But his disadvantage is his arrogance and his distance from people.
On the other hand is a politician who has no experience in running a country and can lead France into nationalist secession, whose consequences are unpredictable.
Source: Russian Service DW
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Source: korrespondent
