According to Estonian intelligence, active hostilities will end in Ukraine within 7-9 weeks, and Ukrainian forces have already achieved victory in the temporarily occupied Kherson region.
Some analysts predict imminent Russian personnel and artillery shortages, while others speak of a possible new Russian offensive in the fall. Correspondent.net collected all opinions about additional war scenarios.
7-9 weeks
According to Estonian intelligence, active hostilities will end in Ukraine within 7-9 weeks, said Margo Grosberg, head of the intelligence center of the Estonian Defense Forces.
“There are 7-9 weeks left before the end of active hostilities, depending on when the weather worsens. Then, until spring, we will face a static war, which we are now witnessing in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Grosberg is convinced. He considers it unlikely that at this time the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to liberate the entire territory of Ukraine.
The head of Estonian intelligence also commented on the counter-offensive of Ukrainian forces in the Kherson region. “I would not classify it as a massive offensive. But since the beginning of April, Ukraine has achieved success in the Kherson region,” he said.
According to Grosberg, the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Dnieper River will remove the danger to Odessa. He remembered that a successful offensive required a threefold advantage in forces. In addition, the aggressor country built many defensive structures in the Kherson region, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine only broke through the first line, he said. Grosberg predicts that Ukraine’s victory in the Kherson region will prevent the Russian Federation from holding a pseudo-referendum.
New RF attacks
The American Institute for the Study of War ISW states that, based on footage published in the media, Russian forces continue to move military convoys into southern Ukraine across the Kerch bridge. These Russian deployments are likely to set the stage for a renewed operation to seize the Donetsk region.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that Russian troops received Putin’s order to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk region on September 15. However, it is unlikely that the Russians will make the necessary progress to capture the area before September 15. The Kremlin is likely looking to capitalize on the importance of capturing the Donbas territories to boost morale.
ISW states that Ukrainians and the West should not be subjected to Russian information operations that portray the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kherson region as one that almost immediately failed, or portray Ukraine as a “helpless puppet of the Western masters.”
RF problems
The representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Vadym Skibitsky, said that the Russian armed forces have been experiencing a shortage of personnel since the beginning of the invasion, and cannot send more than 300,000 to 350,000 soldiers to fight in Ukraine.
“In the Russian army, many units carry out only the protection and defense of facilities both on the territory of the Russian Federation and abroad. In addition, Russia has a strong contingent in Syria. Russia has a wide network of military bases on the territory of the former Soviet Union, it is both Armenia and Tajikistan, a contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh, a contingent in Kazakhstan,” said Skibitsky.
He added that in March-April, the military leadership of the Russian Federation decided to involve only contract soldiers in combat operations. But the number of those willing to sign contracts and go to war significantly decreased after the number of dead and wounded among the invaders increased significantly.
On the 191st day of the massive invasion of Russia, the occupiers’ losses in the war in Ukraine were 48,700 soldiers, 2,009 tanks and 1,126 artillery systems.
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.