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ISW assessed risks from Oreshnik in Belarus

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The Kremlin’s continued boasting of the Oreshnik missile is unlikely to signal the development of specific new deep-strike capabilities, analysts say.

The possible deployment of Russian Oreshnik missiles in Belarus does not increase the immediate risk of medium-range ballistic missile attacks on Ukraine or NATO countries, despite increased “nuclear saber rattling” from the Kremlin. This is stated in a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), released yesterday.

It is indicated that Russian leader Vladimir Putin once again tried to brag about the Oreshnik missile and Russia’s missile potential at a meeting of the supreme state council of the so-called Union State. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov similarly tried to portray Oreshnik’s strike on the Dnieper on November 21 as Russia’s willingness to use any means to prevent a Western strategic victory against the Russian Federation in an interview with Tucker Carlson on December 5 .

“ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin’s continued boasting of the Oreshnik missile is unlikely to indicate the development of specific new Russian deep strike capabilities,” the report said.

Analysts believe that Moscow’s possible deployment of Oreshnik missiles in Belarus will not significantly change the threat to Ukraine and NATO, as the Russians have long had nuclear weapons on the Russian mainland and in the Kaliningrad region, capable of hitting targets in Ukraine and NATO countries. .

Russian troops also regularly launch Iskander ballistic missiles, Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles and Kh-101 cruise missiles, which can be armed with nuclear warheads, into Ukraine, the institute added.

Let’s recall that on December 6 in Minsk, Alexander Lukashenko asked Vladimir Putin to deploy Oreshnik missiles in Belarus. He replied that he considers it possible in the second half of 2025.

Lukashenko received a nuclear “red button”


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Source: korrespondent

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