The rapid offensive of anti-government forces in Syria and the capture of Aleppo led to the emergence of a wave of analytics from the world’s leading media.
CNN writes about shattering illusions about Bashar al-Assad’s hold on power in Syria. This comes as Russia, Iran and Hezbollah are letting their guard down.
The author of the article, CNN senior international correspondent Ben Wedeman, recalls that power in Syria passed to Bashar al-Assad from his father Hafez al-Assad, who died in June 2000. Since then, there have been moments when the survival of the Assad regime seemed doubtful.
As the so-called Arab Spring swept through the region in 2011, toppling autocrats in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya and leading to mass protests in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria, some began writing epitaphs for the Assad dynasty.
But then their allies came to their aid – Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah and Russia. Over the past few years, the fight in Syria between the corrupt, brutal regime in Damascus and a divided, often extremist opposition has seemed frozen in place.
But it was the regime’s illusion of victory that was suddenly shattered this week after the opposition launched an offensive from Idlib province and was able to push into central Aleppo in just 72 hours.
Let us remind you that on the evening of Saturday, November 30, reports appeared that government troops would be defeated in the north of the country, and the rebels were advancing on the central city of Hama.
Why did the dam burst just a few days later? The obvious explanation is that Syria’s key allies are under pressure and have let their guard down. Hezbollah, which played a key role in supporting the Assad regime during the dark days of the civil war, brought most of its troops home after October 7, 2023, to fight Israel, which subsequently killed most of the group’s senior leadership.
The Russian Federation also played a key role in strengthening the government in Damascus after it sent troops and warplanes to Syria in September 2015. However, now Moscow’s main priority is military operations in Ukraine, writes CNN.
Finally, Iran’s advisors and bases in Syria have been subject to frequent Israeli attacks over the past year.
In addition, there is such a reality as longevity. The Assad dynasty has been in power for 53 years, since 1971. Since then, the life of the ordinary Syrian has become worse and worse.
Since 1971, the Assad dynasty has continually overcome internal and external challenges and lived to fight on. However, nothing, neither regimes nor leaders, lasts forever. Everything is finally coming to an end, the author concludes.
The change of power in Syria will call into question the presence of Russian military bases in the country.
Aleppo shows how dependent Bashar al-Assad is on foreign troops. His own army appears to be barely functioning. This makes the Syrian tyrant a problem for Putin. The Russian leader has so far used Syria as a central base in the Middle East. A change of power does not meet his interests, the material says.
However, Russian troops, in particular the Air Force, are mired in a war against Ukraine, and Iran and Hezbollah are busy in a war against Israel.
Russian military leaders know that the Syrian army is a joke. Without Hezbollah, the path would have to invest resources it does not currently have to save Assad, writes Randa Slim, a Middle East expert at Johns Hopkins University.
Russia is not an outside observer. But we may be seeing the limits of the Russian military’s capabilities, adds Omer Ozkizilcik of the Atlantic Council think tank.
Military analyst Yigal Levin writes that the Russians have already closed their military bases near Aleppo, Hama and Deir ez-Zor and are moving to the coast.
Source: Racurs
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.