The Ukrainian attack on Russian territory near Kursk last week caught Moscow by surprise. And it suddenly caught Kyiv’s Western supporters, even in Washington.
Initially, it looked like another display of loud military bravado by one of the anti-Putin militias. On Thursday, it became clear that Kyiv itself was trying to launch a strategic counterattack against Russia.
Analysts say there are signs so far that Kyiv is serious. This is not a light infantry raid – move in, reinforce, go home within 72 hours. The forces that could be detected indicate that significant units of Ukraine’s 22nd and 88th Mechanized Brigades and its 80th Airborne Assault Brigade are in Russia, along with units from other brigades. These are experienced units, probably numbering between 6,000 and 10,000 troops.
Their operation was preceded by a stunning electronic warfare attack that blinded Russian border defenses and blunted the power of their drones. Equipment confirmed to have been used during the operation included American Stryker M2 armored fighting vehicles, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, and German Marder armored infantry vehicles.
What is even more striking is that the Defence Forces have penetrated into Russian territory with a significant amount of engineering equipment, with mine-laying and mine-clearing equipment, HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, long-range mortars and ground air defence units.
The Ukrainian army obviously intends to stand and fight in the “pocket” it has created and may be further strengthened.
The Russian northern group along the border usually numbered about 50,000 men, but most of them were concentrated in the direction of Belgorod to reinforce the Russian advance on the stopped Volchansk.
These troops have been slowly moving west toward Kursk, and have reportedly run into Ukrainian minefields blocking their path. Until Saturday, fighting on the eastern side of the line was intense, with Russian aircraft flying intense and very dangerous air support sorties. However, the Ukrainians appear to have won the early rounds of the battle.
Kyiv is clearly willing to risk valuable soldiers and equipment to gain a foothold here. Zelensky’s critics will argue that this is an abuse of both the lives of soldiers and the heavy equipment that Ukraine desperately needs in the Donbas, the article says.
This counterattack cannot turn the war around, experts say. Its military success will be measured by how much the Ukrainians can make Moscow pay for the eventual restoration of their territory. If the fight is long and the price is high, Ukrainian troops may see disproportionate gains elsewhere.
The deal’s political success will depend on how it plays into Moscow’s psychology: whether it creates genuine doubts in Putin’s inner circle that the war is really worth its ever-increasing cost. The Kremlin’s initial reaction is to pass off the attack as nothing more than a “provocation,” an “act of terrorism.” But even to Russian state media, it looks like a regular war.
Political leaders, often without military experience, have to make important strategic decisions, and military leaders do their best to make them work.
When Zelensky appeared on a Kyiv street just hours after Russia invaded in 2022 to declare that he was not going anywhere and that Ukraine would fight, he made the biggest strategic decision of his life. This week, he took the second most important step – and perhaps the riskier one, The Times concludes.
Source: Racurs
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.