It is very difficult to estimate the strength of Hamas forces, but according to Israeli intelligence estimates, during the war, at least 18 of the group’s 24 battalions were disbanded, and about half of the 40 thousand fighters were killed or injured.
After five months of Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip, the Hamas movement was virtually destroyed. The main leaders of Hamas have not been killed, but the task of the movement, which once fully controlled the enclave, has been reduced to simple survival, writes the Financial Times, citing Palestinian analysts, security officials of Israel and diplomats from the Middle East.
No one to run to
The FT’s interlocutors call the overall picture for Hamas today “bleak.” It is very difficult to estimate the strength of Hamas forces, but according to Israeli intelligence estimates, during the war, at least 18 of the group’s 24 battalions were disbanded, and almost half of the 40 thousand fighters were killed or wounded. Hamas says it has lost 6,000 fighters.
The northern part of the Gaza Strip, where the Israeli army began its offensive, is no longer controlled by Hamas. Most of the remaining battalions, according to one of the FT’s interlocutors, retreated to the city of Rafah which borders Egypt in the south and the Deir el-Balah and Nuseirat refugee camps in the center of the sector.
Rafah and camps in the southern Gaza Strip shelter more than one and a half million Palestinian refugees who fled the northern Gaza Strip during the Israeli offensive. Israel has warned about plans for a large-scale operation in Rafah, but the international community has criticized these plans, pointing out that there is no place for civilians to flee from Rafah.
Underground tunnels
However, US intelligence analysts warned that Hamas could continue “prolonged armed resistance” using a network of underground tunnels for “many years”. A senior Israeli official states that Hamas still exists as a military force, but is not structurally organized, and that the process of completely disbanding it is ongoing. At the same time, Hamas representatives, as the FT notes, continue to speak publicly about Israel’s “impotence” and the militants’ “stability.”
According to an Arab diplomat the FT spoke to, Hamas militants on the ground likely believe they are doing well militarily, having fought one of the world’s most modern armies in the longest Arab-Israeli war in decades. . But despite this, he said, pressure is growing on Hamas to reach a cease-fire agreement. “The main thing is how they respond to pressure. In general, if you put too much pressure on groups like Hamas, you won’t get the reaction you want,” he added.
Prospects for negotiation
During the negotiations for the release of the remaining Israeli captives, Hamas insisted on a ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects these demands, stressing that the fighting will stop only for the release of the captives, and then the prosecution of Hamas leaders will continue. Both sides, as the FT writes, have taken a relatively tough position in the negotiations, but for Hamas, the captives remaining in their captivity essentially serve as the only “insurance.” “They know that if the war continues and they release the hostages, they will be finished,” said Ibrahim Dalalsha, head of the Horizon Center think tank in Ramallah.
Netanyahu, on the other hand, has repeatedly vowed to “destroy” Hamas, and as long as the movement’s leadership remains free, there can be no talk of the “complete victory” that the Israeli prime minister calls for. This carries the risk that many Israelis will view any other outcome of the war as a failure.
However, Hamas itself is likely to realize that the group’s 17-year history of complete control of the Gaza Strip is coming to an end. Hamas officials have begun talks to allow the West Bank-based Palestinian National Authority to regain control of the Gaza Strip, according to diplomats interviewed by the FT.
Ultimately, Hamas’ survival will only be possible if it returns to its original format: a resistance movement with an underground militant wing and a network of religious social services, analysts say.
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.