ISW recounts how the explosion of the Kakhovskaya dam affected the counter-offensive

The creation of a bridgehead by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the east bank in the Kherson region in October pulled the occupying forces from other sectors of the front, and may have had a similar or better effect in June at the beginning of the conflict -offensive. . But then it was impossible because of the Russians blowing up the Kakhovka dam. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

SW analysts noted that the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam on June 6 delayed the crossing of Ukrainian Armed Forces forces across the Dnieper River, likely seeking support for counteroffensive operations.

On December 26, the Associated Press published an interview with Ukrainian soldiers of the Special Operations Forces, in which they said that they are preparing to cross the Dnieper on the left bank of the Kherson region by the end of May 2023. However, the destruction of the hydroelectric dam and subsequent flooding in the region delayed these plans.

Ukrainian personnel reportedly made limited crossing attempts in July, August and September this year, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not begin a larger crossing to establish a bridge on the east bank until mid- October.

The operations of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the eastern coast of the Kherson region in October drew Russian forces from other sectors of the front and are likely to have a similar or more pronounced effect in June 2023 with the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive , experts. said.

The report states that Russian troops also redeployed units of the 7th Airborne Division (Airborne) from the Kherson region after the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam and continue to rely on them as critical elements of Russia’s defense. in the western part of Zaporozhye region and in the territory near the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions.

ISW believes that the Russian command is unlikely to move these elements away from Kherson in the event of a Ukrainian crossing in June 2023.

“Significant Ukrainian ground operations in the left bank of the Kherson region, coordinated with Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine and near Bakhmut, will put greater pressure on Russian forces and likely the ability of the Russian military to balance the manpower and material required for defense operations is limited. four directions, “said the publication.

Thus, ISW analysts summarize, the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam by the Russian invaders probably played a role as a result of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Let’s recall that on the night of June 6, Russian troops blew up the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, which caused widespread flooding in the territories of the Kherson region and caused great environmental, economic and humanitarian damage to Ukraine.

Explosion of Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station: damage reached $14 billion