The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine has named the sources of financing the state budget in 2024.
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The total volume of external financing this year is $31 billion, and income from the placement of domestic government bonds (OVGZ) is $10.8 billion.
As for external financing, macro-financial assistance from the EU will amount, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Finance, in 2023 to 13.1 billion dollars.
Other income from abroad:
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grants from the United States – $9.7 billion;
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funds from the IMF under the Extended Financing Program – $3.6 billion;
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preferential financing from Canada – $1.7 billion.
Budget 2024
Last week, the Cabinet of Ministers submitted to the Verkhovna Rada a bill on the state budget for 2024.
The draft State Budget of Ukraine for 2024 was prepared on the basis of forecast assumptions of the Ministry of Economy, which assume growth of real GDP by 5%, nominal GDP by 23%, and inflation by 11%.
The macro forecast of the Ministry of Economy suggests that exports next year will grow by 7.5%, and imports, on the contrary, will decrease by 5.5%. Thus, economic activity will remain significantly below pre-war levels (in terms of real GDP by 23%, in terms of exports by 24%). At the same time, imports of goods and services will exceed the pre-war level (by 3%) due to the increased import dependence of the economy, which overall will form a negative trade balance of $25 billion.
The unemployment rate will gradually decline and reach 13% of the labor force.
State budget revenues for 2024 are set at UAH 1,263 billion, which is +26% compared to expected figures for 2023. The bulk of income will come from tax revenues – 89%. The tax increase is expected to be +29% compared to the current year.
Among tax revenues, the share of income tax will increase – UAH 174 billion. or +57% by 2023. A significant portion of tax revenues will come from personal income tax (UAH 174 billion or +74% compared to the previous year).
The growth of personal income tax in the state budget is primarily associated with a change in the proportions of its distribution between budgets and the transfer of part of the personal income tax from the income of military personnel to the state budget in full. VAT forms the bulk of budget revenues (60%), its dynamics are elastically related to the dynamics of GDP. The forecast volume of VAT will be UAH 753 billion. or +21% by 2023.
The volume of international grants in 2024 remains uncertain. Their confirmed amount currently amounts to only UAH 6 billion. (less than 1% of budget revenues). Therefore, at this stage of budget preparation, 99% of international assistance is taken into account in the form of external loans and is not included in income.
Source: Racurs
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