The American Institute for the Study of War in a regular report suggests that the Ukrainian army is not now trying to quickly break through the Russian defense lines with large forces, as it notes the gradual depletion of enemy forces.
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The Ukrainian armed forces seem to have focused on creating an asymmetric attrition gradient: while preserving Ukraine’s manpower at the cost of slow territorial advance, gradually destroy Russia’s manpower and equipment, ISW analysts write.
In support of this assumption, they cite the words of the chairman of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov that now the war of annihilation is equal to the war of liberation.
The current pace of Ukraine’s operations does not indicate a stalemate, nor does it indicate that Ukraine is incapable of reclaiming large areas, ISW said.
The authors of the information recall that operations to oust Russian troops from the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region were preceded by lengthy preparations in the form of rocket bombardment of bridges across the Dnieper and relatively small attacks on different sectors of the front. All together, this resulted in the retreat of the Russians from the right bank.
The Russian winter offensive in the north of the Lugansk region stopped in just a month without significant territorial gains.
ISW at the same time notes that now the situation on the southern front is different: there is no such bottleneck in Russian logistics as bridges across the Dnieper. But the main thing, from their point of view, is in the similarity of the tactics of exhausting and destroying enemy forces.
The current Ukrainian counter-offensive is less colorful and lightning-fast than the liberation of a large part of the Kharkiv region, more successful than Russia’s failed winter offensive, and in general, in its pace and progress at the initial stage, it looks more like a slower, but successful result, analysts of the Institute of Study conclude. war.
Source: Racurs
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