ISW assessed the consequences of Prigozhin’s rebellion

The agreement reached thanks to Alexander Lukashenko is a short-term solution, analysts say.

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The armed uprising of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of PMC Wagner, and his campaign against Moscow showed the weakness of the Kremlin. Most likely, this will cause significant damage to the aggressor country’s efforts in the war against Ukraine. This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published the previous day.

“Prigozhin’s uprising showed that Russian troops lacked reserves in many rear areas and will almost certainly worsen the morale of Russian troops in Ukraine, as Ukrainian forces could use it to correct attempts to break Russia’s defenses,” the message said.

Analysts write that the Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable balance. The agreement reached thanks to Alexander Lukashenko was a short-term solution, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin’s rebellion showed serious weakness in the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry.

“The suggestion that the Prigozhin uprising, the Kremlin’s response and Lukashenko’s mediation were carried out by the Kremlin is absurd,” the report said.

ISW draws attention to the fact that the actions of PMC Wagner revealed the weakness of the Russian security forces and demonstrated the inability of Vladimir Putin to use his forces in a timely manner to repel an internal threat, further weakening his monopoly on force.

In addition, the actions of the “Wagnerites” showed the destruction of the Russian military reserves, almost completely occupied with fighting in Ukraine, as well as the danger of relying on inexperienced conscripts to protect the border of the Russian Federation.

Analysts do not predict the imminent fall of the Kremlin, but the Prigozhin rebellion and events in the Russian Federation are likely to cause significant damage to Moscow’s military efforts in the war against Ukraine.

Recall that on June 24, columns of “Wagnerites” advanced into Russian territory. Military facilities and administrative buildings in Voronezh and Rostov-on-Don are under the control of Wagner militants. But at night, Prigozhin announced that he was turning his columns from near Moscow and returning to the field camps “according to plan.”

The media also learned that Putin promised Prigozhin to stop the march on Moscow.