Recently, in the news from the front, the name of the settlement Avdeevka has appeared more and more often near Bakhmut. The situation here is similar to the Bakhmut one – the Russians storm the city for months, it turns into ruins and is in a semi-encirclement, but it doesn’t seem like it. We understand what is happening on this sector of the front.
Where is Avdiivka located and why is it important
Avdiivka is a small town in the Donetsk region, very close to Donetsk itself. In the sixties, the Avdeevka Coke and Chemical Plant (AKHZ) was built here, which became the largest enterprise of this type in Europe. This is one of the most important industries in the region: even before the full-scale war, it was noted that the metallurgical plant named after Ilyich in Mariupol depended on the supply of local coke for a quarter, and the prolonged shutdown of the AKHZ led to a complete cessation of smelting at Mariupol enterprises.
The proximity of Avdiivka to Donetsk affected the fate of its residents back in 2014: the city remained with Ukraine, while the regional center after the Minsk agreements continued to exist as part of the fake DPR. As a result, the residents of Avdiyivka actually lived on the front line until February 24, 2022 (albeit not on such a large-scale war as now).
The escalation occurred in 2017: President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko was forced to interrupt his visit to Germany, because as a result of the shelling of the city from Donetsk, the situation worsened almost to the level of a humanitarian catastrophe – residents were left without water and heat. The constant danger stimulated a strong outflow of the population, and if by 2014 36 thousand people lived here, then by 2018 there were about 20 thousand people left.
Between 2014 and 2022, the parties to the conflict “burrowed into the ground” (in other words, built an extensive network of trenches, trenches, dugouts and other defensive structures), built fortifications, and Avdiivka became practically a fortress. At the same time, the possession of the city gives, according to military experts, the ability to control the entire Donetsk agglomeration, and for Russian and pro-Russian forces it is extremely important to push the Armed Forces of Ukraine at least 20-30 km away from Donetsk (about 3 km from Avdiivka).
After the start of the Russian invasion, the shelling of Avdiivka began literally immediately – there were reports of arrivals near the city. Soon, attempts began by Russia and the republics it invented to take the settlement. In the spring of 2022, the attention of the whole world was riveted on the attempts of the Russians to seize Kyiv or close the ring around the Donbass group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
However, there were battles here too – for example, on March 24, a month after the start of the invasion, it was near Avdiivka that the father-in-law of the famous field commander Igor Girkin (known under the pseudonym Strelkov) died.
What is happening in Avdiivka in recent days
In March 2023, the situation around Avdiivka became more complicated for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to British intelligence, the cordon of the city became a priority goal for Russian and pro-Russian formations, and the assaults intensified sharply. Until the last decade of March, almost the entire population left here: no more than 2 thousand people remained.
On March 27, Vitaliy Barabash, the head of the Avdiivka city military administration, said that now the settlement belongs to the “red zone” – civilians, including journalists, are prohibited from entering there.
Tactically, the attempts of the Russians to take Avdiivka are not much different from the attacks on Bakhmut. Pro-Russian units are trying to cordon off the city, occupying the territories around it – as a result, Avdiivka falls into a semicircle (there is also fighting around Bakhmut, even the configuration of the front line is very similar).
At the same time, Russian and pro-Russian forces seem to be suffering heavy losses, throwing more and more forces at the Avdiyevo fortifications and spending them in frontal attacks. British intelligence reported, for example, that the 10th tank regiment of the 3rd Army Corps suffered heavy losses south of Avdiivka (this large formation was created last summer, and back in August 2022, Ukrainian military analyst Alexander Kovalenko noted that parts of the 3rd Corps would probably go exactly to the Avdeevka direction). According to the British intelligence services, these soldiers trained on the territory of Belarus, but their combat effectiveness remains controversial.
On March 25, a video message from the pro-Russian “Storm” detachment from the 1st Army Corps of the DPR to Vladimir Putin appeared – the fighters complained about huge losses and the fact that they were kept in position with the help of death threats. The unit took part in the assault on the village of Vodiane southwest of Avdiivka (the detachment has been storming this point for about four months, since the beginning of December, and in January a Russian tank column was defeated there).
People were thrown into the trenches like homeless people and littered with corpses”, “They put up barrage detachments against us and did not let us out of positions. Now they don’t let us go anywhere at all, they promise to destroy us. We are in danger,” the people in the video say.
The Russian military leadership reacted: the detachment was taken to the rear, after which the military prosecutor’s office undertook to interrogate those who recorded the appeal – it is already known that two of the unit deserted.
On March 28, the Institute for the Study of War published information that the most experienced Wagner mercenaries (who had previously stormed Bakhmut for a long time) had been transferred near Avdiivka. The commander of the hired units, in response, Yevgeny, declared that there were no Wagnerites in the Avdeevsky direction.
However, these words should be treated with caution: for example, on March 20, it became known that it was near Avdiivka that the well-known mercenary of this PRC, Yevgeny Malgotin, who fought together with Igor Girkin in the Bosnian war in the 1990s, died.
However, it is also difficult for the Ukrainian side, and not only because of the intensity of the assaults. Unlike attacks on Bakhmut and other positional battles of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Avdiivka is regularly bombed by Russian aircraft. The Russian Aerospace Forces have chosen the American path – they use not very expensive missiles for more or less accurate strikes, but guided bombs with correction for satellites processed from ordinary ones (similar to the American JDAM kits supplied to Ukraine).
The advantage of such bombs is the relative simplicity and low cost of kits that turn conventional ammunition into guided ones.
Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets noted that the activity of using corrected air bombs by the Russian side has indeed increased, but this has not yet affected the balance of forces in the struggle for a strategic initiative – not the same volumes. At the same time, he warned that the Russians were probably stockpiling guided munitions to repel a possible UAF counteroffensive.
What could be next?
Apparently, the assaults will continue in the coming days, but it is impossible to say with certainty whether they will lead to the abandonment of Avdiivka by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. About Bakhmut, for example, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on March 8 that there is a possibility of his surrender in the coming days – three weeks have passed, and the city’s garrison stood and stands. On the other hand, this, of course, does not mean that it is impossible to take Avdiivka: the Russians have an obvious desire to take possession of the city, and they spare no resources.
If the Ukrainians manage to resist and not surrender Avdiivka, an important point that dominates the area and is close to Donetsk will remain in the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the important Karlovskoe reservoir will remain in the rear of the Ukrainian troops.
It provides fresh water to nearby settlements and is of no small importance. Meduza writes that Avdiivka, unlike Bakhmut, is the cornerstone of the entire Ukrainian front in central Donbass, and the BBC Russian Service also notes the strategic importance of the point.
At the same time, some pro-Russian channels indicate that “new fortified areas” have already been dug up behind Avdiivka, and its capture will not lead to serious changes.
One way or another, the Ukrainian army does not intend to surrender the city, the fighting for which has been going on intermittently for nine years. Whether the Russians will be able to take Avdiivka (like Soledar in January), or numerous bloody assaults will turn out to be fruitless (as is happening so far in Bakhmut), it is impossible to foresee now.
Source: Racurs
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.