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Samples before Ukraine? How to reconcile Iran and Saudi

The details of the Iranian-Saudi formula of reconciliation were not disclosed, perhaps, we are talking about some delimitation of spheres of influence in the region.

Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to restore diplomatic relations after a seven-year absence. China played a big role in the deal, and Russia liked it even more.

The two countries have been archetypal antagonists for years: a revolutionary republic and a Sunni monarchy, an anti-colonial force with the slogan Death to America! and a bastion of US influence.

During the 40 years of the existence of the Islamic Republic, relations between Tehran and Riyadh have repeatedly gone through stages of normalization. But then everything inevitably slides into new highs.

Iran needs more

Iran and Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties in 2016 after the Saudis executed a prominent Shiite cleric, Ayatollah Nimr al-Nimr. The decision to return them grew over a year. Iraq became the first mediator. Since April 2021, several rounds of negotiations have taken place in Baghdad. Talks stalled and were suspended for several months, then resumed.

Iran’s motives are related to a large number of escalations in which the country has been involved in recent times. Israel regularly carries out acts of sabotage against Iran’s nuclear facilities and strikes on pro-Iranian forces. In the US too, everything is clear. Against this background, the authorities of the Islamic Republic came to the conclusion that now the best way to alleviate their difficult international situation is to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia.

The Iranians have long called on Riyadh to start a dialogue, and for further persuasion they have accompanied verbal calls with various forms of pressure. Iranian drones at the hands of the Yemeni Houthis have attacked Saudi Arabia, Iranian hackers have attacked critical infrastructure in the kingdom, and there have been occasional mysterious explosions on Saudi tankers.

China is the big winner

The true implications of the deal for the Iranians and Saudis have yet to be assessed. But what we can talk about now is the unexpected role of China, which acted as a mediator. Many are already calling Beijing a possible counterbalance to the US in the Middle East.

Washington is really losing interest in the region. The American authorities are not very happy with the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, but to prevent it, it is necessary to provide Riyadh with security guarantees. The US agrees to sell weapons to the Saudi kingdom, but not to defend it on its own. Under current conditions, the White House would prefer to agree to Iranian-Saudi normalization rather than get directly involved in a military confrontation between the two countries.

Beijing, on the other hand, positions itself as a responsible and peaceful power that seeks constructive solutions and can eliminate problems on the ground. Thanks to the successful mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which have waged a proxy war against each other in recent years, China has shown that it can end regional conflicts, not limited to general words about peace , unlike the United States. .

Of course, China’s diplomatic success in the Middle East does not mean it can do the same. with respect to Ukraine and Russia, which Beijing wants to reconcile with it plan. Here, first of all, the fact that Kyiv considers Beijing too close to Moscow and therefore does not see it as an intermediary that prevents it. But the conflict may sooner or later reach a dead end, and then Chinese mediation will still be possible – after all, Russia no longer wants to see the West in this role.

Source: korrespondent

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