Russian President Vladimir Putin, against the backdrop of an unsuccessful “special operation” in Ukraine, could declare martial law in the Russian Federation.
Some action is expected from Vladimir Putin in the war against Ukraine. His offensive was finally loaded, with no victories. Putin was expected to announce a general mobilization on May 9, but it did not happen. What to expect next?
Rise in the war zone
Putin, against the backdrop of an unsuccessful “special operation” in Ukraine, is likely to declare martial law in the Russian Federation and unleash war on the occupied territory of Moldova, said the head of the US National Intelligence, Avril Haynes, in a speech to the Senate.
According to Haynes, Putin decided to expand the conflict in Russian -controlled Transnistria. At the same time, he did not specify whether the Russian Federation currently has the potential to fulfill such a whim of Putin.
Moreover, U.S. intelligence learned of the Russian leader’s plan to wage a protracted war in the region, hoping that the U.S. and Europe would “lose determination” in suppressing such aggression.
Haynes added that Putin could introduce martial law in Russia to mobilize confrontational forces against Ukraine.
In general, US intelligence believes that Putin’s actions in Ukraine are likely to become more unpredictable in the coming months. All because Putin is faced with a mismatch between his ambitions and the current potential of Russian troops.
At the same time, intelligence does not believe Putin will use nuclear weapons unless he feels a threat to Russia’s existence.
Double the bet
CNN reported that Putin used his annual Victory Day speech to commemorate the end of World War II on Monday, May 9, to falsely accuse the United States and the West of having no choice but to invade Ukraine. In a speech that distorted the truth, he said the war started because Russia had no choice but to preemptively repel “aggression” on its borders.
The killing in Ukraine, typical of the relentless attacks by Russian troops on civilians, has underlined CIA Director Bill Burns ’warning about the dangers of a new stage of war.
“Putin is in a mood that he does not believe he can beat. I think he is convinced that doubling the rate will allow him to make progress, ”Burns said at an event at the Financial Times in Washington on Saturday, May 8th.
Burns also said that while the U.S. has not yet seen any evidence that Russia is mobilizing smaller -yield tactical nuclear weapons for use in Ukraine, the possibility that it could try to do so cannot be ruled out.
“Given the saber-rattling… we have heard from the Russian leadership, we cannot take these possibilities lightly. At the time… the stakes for Putin’s Russia were very high and the risks in the second stage of the conflict were serious and should not be underestimated, ”Burns said.
The West does not want the end of the war?
There was no significant diplomatic push from the West to end the war, CNN said. This vacuum appears to stem from the perception in Washington and some European capitals that Ukraine — thanks to its heroic resistance and influx of Western arms — has somehow won the battle. And Putin is showing every sign that he is continuing to act, no matter how costly. But the broader geopolitical risks associated with this fact will only grow with Western pressure.