The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that Ukraine this year will be able to return the initiative to the battlefield, subject to “sufficient and timely support from the West.”
US President Joe Biden visited Kyiv on February 20, where he met with Volodymyr Zelensky and announced that Washington would provide an additional $500 million to Kyiv. military assistance, including howitzer shells, anti-tank missiles, air surveillance radars and other assistance.
Earlier, Zelensky said that Ukraine would continue to defend Bakhmut, but “not at any cost.” ISW analysts see Ukraine’s decision to defend Bakhmut as a strategically sound effort to pin down Russian forces on a separate sector of the front.
Zelenskiy likely softened his administration’s stance on Bakhmut to make a limited rhetorical concession to US officials. It has long been clear that Ukraine will not continue to defend Bakhmut at the risk of being surrounded … therefore, Zelensky’s comment is unlikely to indicate a real change in Kyiv’s strategy, the report says.
The ISW also recalled the words of a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, Fedir Venislavsky, that Russia had abandoned “all combat-ready units on the collision line in the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, and also partially in the Zaporozhye region.”
These Ukrainian statements are consistent with the ISW assessment that Ukraine is able to regain the initiative in 2023 with sufficient and timely support from the West, the ISW concludes.
Source: Racurs
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