ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power 20 years ago on the back of a wave of public outrage over his former government’s handling of a deadly earthquake.
Now, with the election three months away, Erdogan’s political future may depend on how the public perceives his government’s response to an equally devastating natural disaster.
“It will be a major challenge for Erdogan, who has established himself as an autocratic but effective figure who gets the job done,” said Soner Cagaptay, a Turkey expert at the Washington Institute and author of several articles. books about Erdogan.
The aftermath of a massive earthquake is not the only parallel to the 2002 election. At the time, Turkey was in the midst of a financial crisis that was punishing its economy.
Today, Turkey’s economy is buffeted by skyrocketing inflation, and Erdogan has faced widespread criticism for his handling of the problem, which has left millions of poor and middle-class people struggling to make ends meet.
Erdogan’s political rivals have already begun criticizing his government’s response to the earthquake, saying it has failed to prepare the country for the inevitable for more than two decades. Experts point to lax enforcement of building codes as one of the main reasons why this week’s earthquakes were so deadly. But with less than 100 days until the election, Erdogan’s rivals have yet to field a candidate to run against him.
The memory of how Bulent Ecevit, the late prime minister, was shattered by the mismanagement of financial and natural disasters two decades ago must be on Erdogan’s mind as he tries to deal with the twin problems he faces today , analysts say.
The 7.8-magnitude earthquake on February 6 was followed nine hours later by another powerful earthquake that killed more than 24,000 people in both Turkey and Syria.
The devastation spread across a large area of Turkey, affecting 10 provinces in the country’s southeast and hampering the ability of domestic and foreign aircrews to carry out rapid relief efforts. In the first days after the earthquake, Turkish television and social media showed people waiting helplessly by piles of debris in freezing conditions or using their bare hands to dig through the rubble.
“We will still have to see the outcome of the relief, if the sub-zero temperatures continue, if the casualties increase, if the international assistance arriving could make a difference,” Cagaptay said.
Erdogan, who visited the region this week, acknowledged shortcomings in the early stages of the response but insisted everything was now under control.
“If the disaster response is strong, the ruling administration will be rewarded, probably in the polls – if it is weak, the opposite,” Timothy Ash, an analyst at BlueBay Asset Management in London, wrote in an email.
Ecevit attributed the scale of destruction to the poor response after the 1999 earthquake, which killed an estimated 18,000 people. Similarly, Erdogan said the response to this week’s earthquake – which he described as “the strongest in the history of this geography” – had been hampered by winter weather and the destruction of a key airport, making it difficult to quickly reach destinations.
“It is not possible for us to be prepared for such a disaster,” Erdogan said, vowing that “we will not leave any of our citizens without treatment.”
While the patchy response to the earthquake so far has not been great for Erdogan’s reputation, analysts say it is time for him to turn things around ahead of elections set for May 14.
“He has the levers of state at the helm, and Turkish politics was about as good as it was before the earthquake,” Hamish Kinnear, Middle East and North Africa analyst for risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, said in an email .
Shortly after the quake, Erdogan declared a three-month state of emergency, giving him the power to “spend lavishly” in those areas, said Kinnear, who still believes an Erdogan victory is likely.
Erdogan promised to donate 10,000 Turkish lira ($530) to people affected by the earthquake and subsidize their rent. On Friday, he said another 100 billion pounds ($5.3 billion) would be allocated to post-quake efforts.
In the last presidential and parliamentary elections of 2018, Erdogan and his parliamentary alliance won by a landslide in seven of the 10 provinces devastated by this week’s earthquakes. And in recent years, he has made changes that have eliminated checks and balances between the various branches of government, concentrating more power within the presidency.
In Turkey, freedom of expression is limited and the government extensively controls the media, meaning that television stations mostly show “miracle rescue” scenes while appearing to censor scenes of hardship.
Faced with crushing inflation, Erdogan increased the minimum wage, pensions and salaries of civil servants. While these passages would have been welcomed by voters, others have brought him severe criticism.
For example, he has insisted on fighting inflation by repeatedly cutting interest rates to stimulate growth, a strategy that economists around the world say has only made the problem worse.
For now, all eyes are on the earthquake response.
In the hard-hit city of Adiyaman, Ahmet Aydin, a resident who lost six relatives as well as his house, shop and car in the quake, complained about the slow emergency response. But he said he would never stop supporting Erdogan, underscoring the Turkish leader’s potential enduring appeal.
“We trust our president,” Aydin said. “They would never leave us alone, never leave us hungry or thirsty. May Allah protect him.”
Erdogan’s political rivals tell a different story.
This week, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of Turkey’s main opposition party, blamed the devastation on Erdogan’s 20-year rule.
“Let me be very clear; if there is only one person responsible for this process, it is Erdogan,” Kilicdaroglu said in a video address. “For 20 years this government has not prepared the country for an earthquake.”
He also accused the government of misspending taxes imposed following the 1999 earthquakes, which were supposed to prepare the country for future disasters.
As the death toll continues to rise, Erdogan says the country’s leaders should strive to stay above the political fray.
“This time is one of unity and togetherness,” she said Wednesday. “I cannot condone how, at a time like this, such dirty and negative campaigns are being waged for the sake of basic political interests.”
Bilginsoy reported from Istanbul.
I’m a passionate and motivated journalist with a focus on world news. My experience spans across various media outlets, including Buna Times where I serve as an author. Over the years, I have become well-versed in researching and reporting on global topics, ranging from international politics to current events.