ISW analysts explained why the alleged spring offensive of the Russian army could be a failure for it.
For several weeks, observers have been warning that the Russian army intends to launch a large-scale offensive in Ukraine in the spring. Now this scenario is becoming more likely as the tanks promised by the West to Kyiv will arrive there in just a few months.
If the Russian military really decides to take advantage of this time period, the offensive attempt may still turn out to be a failure for them, analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) say.
They explain that in this case, the Russian attack “is likely to peak prematurely, just in time for the spring rainy and off-road season, without affecting significant operational impact” on the situation at the front.
18/ Current and planned Russian offensives will very likely culminate with achieving operationally decisive gains and in ways that could very well create propitious conditions for Russian counter-offensives, as 12 Ukraine has ingested the incoming
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) January 30, 2023
This will create favorable conditions for the Ukrainian armed forces to launch their own counteroffensive in late spring or summer 2023, ISW experts write. Especially when you consider that by this time the Armed Forces of Ukraine will most likely receive some of the Western offensive weapons that they can use on the battlefield.
In addition, experts at the Institute for the Study of War doubt that the Russian armed forces have already regained sufficient combat power after losses in the early stages of the war. This may prevent them from “conducting simultaneous large-scale mechanized offensives in the coming months.” Also, one should not write off serious losses among the personnel of the Russian army.
Analysts recall that “Russia’s military failures in the Kyiv, Kharkov and Kherson regions have repeatedly indicated that the Russian military leadership overestimates the capabilities of its military personnel.”
It is likely that in the event of a proposed spring offensive, the Russian command may again plan an offensive operation based on false assumptions about the capabilities of its own armed forces.
Source: Racurs
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