Putin used the “Wagnerites” at a difficult time for the regular army, but he was never going to take steps towards Prigozhin in his desire to gain additional influence.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in another report continues to talk about relations in the Russian elite based on information from open sources and suggests that the star of the founder of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is waning: Putin decided to once again bet on the regular army.
The star of the Wagner-funded prigozhin, after several months of apparent recovery, began to decline due to the fact that he could not fulfill his promise to capture Bakhmut on his own, writes ISW.
ISW derives this assumption, in particular, from the fact that Putin placed Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov in command of the troops in Ukraine and demoted General Surovikin, whom Ukrainian intelligence called an ally of Prigozhin, to Gerasimov’s deputy. In addition, ISW considers it an important sign that Putin did not mention Prigogine when he spoke about the capture of Soledar on January 15th.
According to ISW analysts, Putin decided in the fall to give Prigozhin and Surovikin the opportunity to show what they can do with their own means: one – with thousands of mobilized prisoners, the second – with strikes on the Ukrainian energy and power grids.
Both failed: Prigozhin’s attempts to seize Bakhmut ended in failure, and Surovikin’s raiding campaign achieved next to nothing other than causing suffering to the civilian population of Ukraine by wasting much of Russia’s stockpile of precision-guided missiles, writes ISW.
Now, according to American analysts, Putin has again staked on the army and hopes that Shoigu and Gerasimov, having trained and equipped the mobilized, will soon be able to correct Russia’s affairs on the fronts.
And even though Prigogine gained some influence with the Russian president, he never intended to satisfy the political and business ambitions of the leader of the mercenaries.
Prigozhin is still demanding official recognition of the Wagner group in Russia from the Kremlin, even though Russian criminal law prohibits the activities of parallel military formations. Putin could have responded to Prigozhin’s numerous requests and demands over the course of many months and legalized the operations of the Wagnerites in the country, but he probably did not see fit to weaken the Russian Ministry of Defense and give Prigozhin additional powers, the ISW notes.
Source: Racurs
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.