The study applied Gompertz’s law. This allows estimation of the age at which any individual is expected to first reach an estimated mortality plateau.
Economist David McCarthy of the University of Georgia and risk management and insurance expert Po-Ling Wang of the University of South Florida in the United States believe that by 2060, humanity will live a long life. Science Alert writes about it.
The researchers reached these conclusions by using mortality data from birth cohorts in the Human Mortality Database, applying a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the life expectancy of those born in the same year among those industrialized countries.
They then applied a function known as Gompertz’s law to estimate the age at which any individual would be expected to first reach the estimated mortality plateau.
“This Gomperz maximum age, or GMA, should theoretically indicate an upper limit to human life span. If the GMA is relatively constant from one cohort to the next, we can assume that there maximum age Advances in medicine may help more people avoid illness and recover from injuries, but the distribution of ages at which we die will simply be compressed into a smaller range.
So it turns out that those born in the decades after the middle of the 19th century GMA jumped about five years. The reason for this phenomenon is not clear, but it was found that the increase in life expectancy is more pronounced in women.
A larger jump in GMA was recorded among people born between 1910 and 1950. They are currently between 70 and 110 years old. So, it is believed that by 2060 people’s lives will be longer.
“We also emphasize that pre-1950 cohorts will only have the opportunity to break existing longevity records if policy choices continue to support the health and well-being of older people and the political, environment and economic environment remains stable,” the researchers said. .
Remember, experts from the University of Turku, Finland, said that it is possible to predict the risk of human death for more than ten years by analyzing the composition of the intestinal microflora.
There was a test that showed the risk of death in the next 10 years
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Source: korrespondent
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