Nuclear tensions are on the rise after Russia suspended the latest nuclear weapons deal with the US.

After decades of progress against nuclear proliferation, Russia’s war against Ukraine has sparked renewed nuclear tensions between Russia and the United States.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his annual address to the nation on February 21, 2023, that Russia is “suspending” its participation in the latest active nuclear arms deal between the US and Russia, known as New START.

“Our relationship has deteriorated, and the United States is entirely to blame,” said Putin, who did not completely withdraw from the agreement aimed at limiting the spread of nuclear weapons.

In the same speech, Putin threatened to restart nuclear testing if the US did the same, saying the US was considering restarting its own. The United States has repeatedly affirmed that it can modernize and certify the reliability of its nuclear weapons without resorting to further testing.

The US State Department was quick to condemn Putin’s statement, while NATO Secretary General Jens Stolenberg said Russia’s suspension of the deal was making the world more dangerous.

Putin’s announcement greatly weakens the last remaining arms control agreement, but does not end it immediately. By “suspending” the treaty, rather than withdrawing from it, Putin retains the option of resuming it without the need for it to be revised or re-ratified by the US Congress.

New START is the only remaining agreement between the United States and Russia to limit the development of nuclear weapons and the means to support them. This allows both countries to regularly and with limited notice inspect their respective stockpiles of nuclear weapons.

I have worked and researched nuclear nonproliferation for two decades.

Persuading countries to reduce their nuclear arsenals or abandon their pursuit of these advanced weapons has always been extremely difficult.

history of nonproliferation

The Soviet Union, US, UK, France, Israel, and China had active nuclear weapons programs in the 1960s.

Countries recognized the risk of a future nuclear war.

Sixty-two countries initially agreed to what was called the “Great Deal” in 1967, an important element of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Ultimately, 191 countries signed this treaty.

The agreement prevented the proliferation of nuclear weapons in countries that did not yet have them in 1967. Nuclear-weapon countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom have agreed to end the arms race and work towards disarmament, that is, destruction. all nuclear weapons.

This historic agreement laid the foundation for agreements between the United States and the Soviet Union to further reduce their nuclear weapons and support facilities. It also prevented other countries from developing and testing nuclear weapons until the end of the Cold War.

Israel, India and Pakistan never joined the agreement for national security reasons. All of them now have nuclear weapons. North Korea withdrew from the agreement and developed nuclear weapons.

a few hits

Since the Cold War, great strides have been made in preventing nations from acquiring nuclear weapons and drastically reducing arsenals.

The world’s nuclear arsenal has been reduced by 82% since 1986 from a peak of 70,300. Nearly all of the cuts have been in the United States and Russia, which had the largest arsenals at the time.

Currently, there are about 12,700 nuclear weapons in the world, of which about 90% are in the hands of Russia and the United States, that is, from 5 to 6 thousand units each.

Other countries have nuclear weapons, most with several hundred warheads each, including Britain, France and China, although China is building up its nuclear arsenal. New nuclear powers like India, Pakistan and Israel have around 100, while North Korea has around 20.

Since the late 1960s, countries have entered into more than a dozen legally binding agreements or treaties restricting the acquisition of nuclear weapons by new countries and banning testing, among other measures.

But they have not reduced the number of nuclear weapons with short-range missiles.

No agreement covers these weapons, which can also cause massive destruction and loss of life.

Cooperation between the US and Russia is on the wane

Commitments between the United States and Russia regarding nuclear weapons changed when Russia forcibly annexed Crimea in 2014.

In 2014, Russia deployed ground-launched missiles in Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave in the center of Eastern Europe.

The US and NATO then accused Russia of violating the 1987 nuclear deal on land-based short and medium-range missiles. From Russia, they could travel between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, reaching their targets even in London.

The United States also terminated this agreement in 2019 due to alleged violations by Russia. There are currently no international nuclear agreements in Europe.

The New START treaty signed by Russia and the United States remains the only major agreement on strategic nuclear weapons in force.

This was to continue until at least 2026.

The US and Russia stopped all inspections of each other’s nuclear weapons production facilities and operations in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the exchange of hundreds of notifications continued, which reduced the possibility of miscalculations and misunderstandings.

In November 2022, Russia canceled negotiations to resume inspections. The United States considers this a breach of the agreement, but not a direct material breach of the treaty.

Impact of the Ukrainian War

Putin has repeatedly expressed fears that the setbacks suffered by Russia during its almost year-long war with Ukraine, as well as Western involvement in the conflict, could lead to Russia launching a nuclear strike on Ukraine or another Western country.

One nuclear weapon in a large city today can kill between 52,000 and several million people, depending on the size of the weapon.

The US-Russian arms control regime was successful during the Cold War because it included important verification mechanisms: direct checks of each side’s nuclear arsenals with less than 24 hours’ notice.

Russia and the United States have conducted 306 inspections since the New START came into force in 2011. Without START, all inspections of nuclear bases and support facilities will cease.

During the 1987 nuclear talks, President Ronald Reagan translated the Russian dictum “Trust, but verify,” the basis of the nuclear arms control regime.

Nina Srinivasan Rathbun, Professor of International Affairs, Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, University of Southern California

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original.

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