Why global temperatures are expected to continue breaking records this year

17.23 degrees Celsius. On July 7, the world temperature record was broken for the third time in a week, reaching the mark of 17.01 degrees on Monday. The measurement was made using data from around the world collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).is based on a combination of satellite observations and thousands of individual in-situ observations“, explains Samuel Morin, director of the National Center for Meteorological Research (Météo-France and CNRS). Therefore, it is a very extensive and reliable indicator. The symbolic level of 17 degrees was never reached until this summer of 2023. This average may seem insignificant. However, for experts, this is a sad record that could still be broken during the summer.

Persistent global warming

The unabated rise of mercury is primarily fueled by a major trend, which is the reality of global warming. In fact, despite successive restrictions during the Covid-19 pandemic, greenhouse gas emissions still persist. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere in 2022 was 418 parts per million air molecules (ppm). A 50% increase in data since the early 1700s. But Co₂ is not the only greenhouse gas. methane, nitrous oxide, fluorinated gases… these have caused global average temperatures to rise by 1.1 degrees Celsius since the end. 19th century, according to the Ministry of Ecological Transition, based on the latest report of the ICRC.

This explains why we have reached an average global temperature of 17 degrees today. “We are getting much stronger heat peaks around the worldsays Samuel Morin. “We’ve set ten times more records today in the heat than in the cold. All of this is consistent with a climate system that stores more and more energy from the sun.the impact of these increases in greenhouse gas levels,” he continues. June, July and August, which correspond to the boreal summer, are the hottest in the world. That period is therefore most favorable for absolute records of mean planetary temperatures. Despite these world records, the rise in temperature is not uniform across the planet. “There are places where global warming is stronger than others, especially on continentsAccording to Samuel Morin. These are the places where the vast majority of human activity is concentrated.

The arrival of the warm “El Nino” current

Another, more cyclical setting explains why many global temperature records have been set and are likely to be broken again this summer. This is the arrival of a warm El Niño current, announced by the WMO on Monday 4th July. “At this stage we are rather in the early stages of a very likely El Niño event.According to the director of the National Center for Meteorological Research. The phenomenon is characterized by the accumulation of warm surface waters in the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean, which affects the temperature of the planet. It contrasts with La Niña, which is characterized by cold currents and occurs every two to seven years, and typically lasts 9 to 11 months. In 2016, the date of the last major heat record in June 2023, the planet was already emerging from an El Niño episode. Samuel Morin concludes:it is very possible that world heat records will be repeated this summer“. A trend confirmed by data from Copernicus, the European Union’s Earth observation programme. last month was the hottest June in planetary history.