The recession in the Ukrainian economy will continue in the first quarter of 2023, and the increase should begin in the second.
The recovery of the Ukrainian economy will begin in the second quarter of 2023, predicts the National Bank.
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According to the inflation report of the NBU, this year the GDP decline was 35.6% and will continue in the first quarter of next year – by 17.5%. And already in the second quarter, growth will be 13.9%, in the third – 9.2% and in the fourth – 11.3%.
At the same time, the forecast for the economic collapse in 2022 was slightly improved – from 37.5%. At the same time, the NBU worsened the forecast for economic recovery in the remaining three quarters of 2023.
Overall, the National Bank predicts a decline in GDP this year of 31.5% and its growth of 4% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2024, while in July it expected a decline this year of 33.4% and growth in 2023-2024 of 5.5 % and 4.9%, respectively.
Nominal GDP, according to the document, this year may be reduced to UAH 4.75 trillion from UAH 5.46 trillion last year. However, due to high inflation (30% this year, 20.8% next year and 9.4% in 2024), the nominal GDP will reach UAH 6.175 trillion in 2023, and UAH 7.35 trillion in 2024 , the National Bank expects .
“The baseline scenario is based on assumptions about the launch of a new program with the IMF, the implementation of a coordinated monetary and fiscal policy, the gradual leveling of quasi-fiscal imbalances, particularly in the energy sector. The baseline scenario also assumes a tangible reduction in security risks from the middle of next year, which will contribute to the complete unblocking of sea ports, reduction of the sovereign risk premium and return of forced migrants to Ukraine, ” ujdjhbncz said in the report.
This scenario assumes the full opening of ports from the second half of the year, an increase in gas and heating tariffs to 50% of parity, and the return of 0.4 million refugees from the 8 million who left in 2022.
The forecast also assumes continued active international financial support for Ukraine in the amount of $28 billion in 2023 and $20 billion in 2024 compared to $31.1 billion this year (about $24.1 billion received so far).
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The National Bank named the prolongation of the war and its growth as the strongest risk for this scenario, estimating its probability from 25% to 50%. In the same possibility, risks such as increased emigration and energy risks of winter passage, as well as the termination of gas transit, are allowed. However, the level of influence of the first two is moderate, and the termination of the transit, which is expected to be 20 billion cubic meters. m per year is weak.
Other serious risks are the imbalance of public finances (low rates on government bonds, frozen tariffs for housing and communal services, reduction of international aid, longer issues), but the possibility its less – 15-25%.
The cessation of the grain corridor and the non-signing of the IMF program are classified as moderate risks in terms of their impact on the main macro-forecast, however, their probability is estimated at 15-25% and less than 15%, respectively.
Ukraine’s probability of getting a “Marshall plan” in the forecast of the NBU is currently estimated at 15%.
Earlier, the National Bank noted the economic recovery, improving the estimate of Ukraine’s GDP decline in 2022 to 32% from 37.5%.
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Source: korrespondent
I am Dylan Hudson, a dedicated and experienced journalist in the news industry. I have been working for Buna Times, as an author since 2018. My expertise lies in covering sports sections of the website and providing readers with reliable information on current sporting events.