The regulator mentioned the additional consequences of the war as limiting factors for the growth of the Ukrainian economy.
The National Bank of Ukraine worsened the main macroeconomic indicators for the current and subsequent years. This was reported on the regulator’s website on Thursday, January 23.
Thus, the NBU worsened its economic growth forecast to 3.6% from 4.3% in the previous October forecast, and inflation to 8.4% from 6.9%.
“Taking into account the security risks and the difficult situation in the labor market, the NBU lowered the real GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.6%. in normal operating conditions Accordingly, in 2026 “In 2027, a moderate acceleration of economic growth is expected – about 4%,” said the report.
The regulator mentioned the additional consequences of the war as limiting factors for economic growth, which negatively affects the lack of labor and the lack of productive capital. However, its recovery will be facilitated by investments in energy and production capacities, the maintenance of a soft monetary policy and the growth of private consumption against the backdrop of rising household income.
The NBU revised the forecast for GDP growth in 2026 from 4.6% down to 4%. And he left the economic growth estimate for 2027 at 4.2% unchanged.
“In the first months of 2025, inflation is likely to continue to rise due to the additional influence of both temporary factors, especially the effects of last year’s low yields, and fundamental ones, in particular pressure from costs in business production will increase in the second quarter and from the middle of the year will begin to decrease,” indicated the National Bank.
So, according to the regulator’s estimates, the acceleration of inflation continued in January. At the same time, the regulator left the forecast for the return of the consumer price index to the target of 5% in 2026 and its preservation in 2027 unchanged.
“It is expected that by the end of 2025, inflation will slow down to 8.4%, and in 2026 – to 5%. as well as high yields, an improvement in the energy situation, a reduction in the financial deficit and moderate external pressure that price,” the central bank said.
We remind you that the NBU has now raised the discount rate to 14.5% per year, which corresponds to an increase in inflation to 12% by the end of 2024. At the same time, the regulator’s updated macro forecast assumes a further increase at the discount rate to prevent inflation.
Source: korrespondent
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