However, the Russian authorities underestimated a key economic parameter – the inflation rate, Swedish economists note.
Statements by the Russian authorities that the economy has withstood Western sanctions and is growing rapidly, despite the disconnection of banks from SWIFT and restrictions on the supply of goods and technology, may be a lie . This was discussed in a statement by experts from the Stockholm Institute for Economics in Transition at the Stockholm School of Economics (NIER).
According to Rosstat statistics, in 2022 Russia’s GDP fell by 1.2% (six times less than the government predicted at the beginning of the war), after which it immediately began to grow – by 3.6% last year and 4.6% for the first half of 2024.
However, the Russian authorities underestimated a key economic parameter – the inflation rate, resulting from the calculations of Swedish economists.
According to Rosstat, the consumer price index in 2022 increased by 11.9%, in 2023 – by 7.4%, and in January-September 2024 – by 5.8%. In total – 27.1% from the beginning of the war.
However, alternative measures of inflation give figures many times higher, NIER said. Thus, the price index for daily goods (FMCG), calculated by Romir based on the real consumption basket of Russians, jumped 33.4% in the first year of the war, 23.2% in the second and another 13.7% in the first 9 months of 2024. . In total – by 87%.
If we adjust Russia’s GDP growth not by official inflation, but by Romir’s data, the growth of 3.6% last year would be a decrease of 8.7%.
NIER economists used three other alternative models for assessing the Russian economy, and none of them showed growth. GDP calculated based on the dollar price of oil fell by 1.9% last year, based on the ruble price of oil – by 8.2%, and the correlation model for US GDP showed a fall of 10.9%.
We remind you that the Russian leader Vladimir Putin said that the Russian economy “continues to grow at a great pace.” What is the actual economic situation of the aggressor country? Correspondent.net.
Source: korrespondent
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