The decrease in the export of grains and oilseeds compared to last season could reach more than 16 million tons, UZA predicts.
Farmers have lowered their harvest estimates in Ukraine this year due to drought in July. The Ukrainian Grain Association reported this on Wednesday, July 31.
Today the potential harvest has decreased by 2.8 million tons compared to the previous forecast – to 71.8 million tons of grain and oilseeds. In 2023, according to UZA estimates, the harvest will reach 82.8 million tons of grain and oilseeds.
The reduction in the yield forecast was caused by hot and dry weather in Ukraine in July this year, which had a negative impact on the yield potential of the late grain and oilseed crops.
Under these conditions, exports in the new season 2024/2025 will reach 41 million tons, which is 2.5 million tons less than the previous forecast. The decrease in exports compared to the previous season could be more than 16 million tons, UZA predicts.
The wheat harvest in 2024 is estimated at 19.8 million tons. Potential exports for the 2024/2025 MY are around 13 million tonnes.
The barley harvest could be 4.95 million tons, which is more than 350 thousand tons than the initial estimate, and potential exports can be expected at about 2 million tons.
Due to the drought, the corn harvest is expected to reach 23.4 million tons, which is 2.1 million tons lower than the initial estimate. At the same time, potential exports could reach around 18.5 million tons.
The sunflower harvest can be expected at 12.8 million tons, which is 900 thousand tons lower than the initial estimate. Potential exports can reach up to 250 thousand tons.
Rapeseed harvest is expected to reach 4.3 million tons, while exports could reach 3.4 million tons.
Despite the fact that farmers have increased the area under soybeans, poor weather conditions will not allow them to get a larger crop yield. Therefore, UZA expects soybeans to reach 4.8 million tons in 2024, which is 700 thousand tons less than the initial estimate. Potential exports could reach 3.5 million tons.
It was previously reported that due to abnormal heat in Ukraine, the yield of early grain crops will be reduced by 5%, and the late crop may lose up to 15%. These data were announced by Acting Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotsky.
Source: korrespondent
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