The IMF improved its forecast to 2024 for both the US (up to 2.1%) and China (4.6%) – the world’s two largest economies.
The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 by 0.2 percentage points. – up to 3.1%. In 2025, growth is expected to be 3.2%. This was stated in the January World Economic Outlook.
The outlook is an improvement from October 2023 due to better-than-expected stability in the US and some strong market economies, as well as financial support in China.
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However, the forecast for 2024-2025 is below the historical average (2000-2019) of 3.8% due to the increase in rates by central banks to fight inflation, the end of financial support amid high debt
“The clouds are clearing. The global economy is approaching a soft landing and inflation continues to fall. Despite this, growth is slow and there may be turbulence ahead,” said IMF chief economist Pierre -Olivier Gourincha.
The forecast for global inflation for 2024 remained the same – 5.8%, for 2025 decreased by 0.2 percentage points. – up to 4.4%. The IMF expects advanced economies to shrink faster (up to 2.6% in 2024) than developing and emerging market economies (up to 8.1%).
The average price of oil in 2023, according to the Fund, will decrease by 16%. In 2024, a fall of 2.3% (previously 0.7%) – to $79.1 per barrel is expected. By 2025, the decline will accelerate to 4.8% – $75.31 per barrel.
The IMF also added that fresh increases in commodity prices due to geopolitical turmoil, particularly shipping attacks in the Red Sea, could prolong tight financial conditions.
It was previously reported that the Russian economy was dramatically “overheating” and increasingly dependent on the continuation of the war.
Source: korrespondent
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