The worst-case scenario assumes that the war will continue until the end of 2025, resulting in a 5% drop in GDP.
The International Monetary Fund has developed three macroeconomic forecasts for Ukraine depending on the timing of the end of the war with Russia – base, negative and positive scenarios. This is stated in the Memorandum with the IMF, which was published the previous day.
Thus, the main forecast is based on the assumption that the war will end by the end of 2024 with an expected GDP growth of 3-4%, in 2025 – by 6.5%.
The negative scenario, which assumes a longer and more intense war, allows the end of the war before the end of 2025. This will lead to a sharp 5% decrease in real GDP in 2024 (compared to 3-4% that growth in the base case) and zero growth in 2025.
The positive scenario does not indicate an exact date for the end of hostilities, but with high investment, influx of migration and increased productivity, GDP growth could reach up to 10% by 2025.
The previous day, the IMF’s Board of Directors approved the second revision of the extended lending program – now Ukraine will receive a third tranche worth about $900 million.
Let’s recall that in November the IMF doubled its GDP forecast for Ukraine – to 4.5% by the end of 2023. At the same time, in October, the fund predicted the growth of this indicator at the level of 2%, and the statement at the level of fund management sounded even from 1%.
Source: korrespondent
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