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The IMF has upgraded its GDP forecast for Ukraine

The Fund again began to publish a long-term forecast for Ukraine, whereas after the start of a full-scale war with the Russian Federation in February 2022, only a forecast for the current year was given.

The International Monetary Fund upgraded its forecast in April for the growth rate of the Ukrainian economy by a decline of 3% compared to growth of 2% this year. This was stated in the World Economic Outlook (WEO), published on Tuesday, October 10.

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At the same time, the IMF returned the long-term forecast for Ukraine to review, while after the start of a full-scale war with the Russian Federation in February 2022, only a forecast for the current year was given.

“Ukraine’s forecasts for 2024-2028 are now coherent and in line with the program’s baseline scenario (expanded EFF financing),” the updated October macro forecast said.

In previous WEOs, the fund said that “for Ukraine, all forecasts for 2024-2028 have been reduced due to an unusually high level of uncertainty.”

According to the new forecast, the IMF expects Ukraine’s GDP to grow by 2% in 2023 and accelerate to 3.2% in 2024. In 2028, according to the fund, the Ukrainian economy will grow by 4% per year.

Also, the macro forecast for Ukraine at the moment provides a reduction in inflation from 26.6% last year to 15.5% this year and up to 10% next year, although at the end of September it dropped to 7.1% .

The IMF also maintained its forecast for global economic growth in 2023 at 3.0%. The GDP growth forecast in 2024 worsened by 0.1 percentage points. – up to 2.9%. Both rates are below the historical average of 3.8% (2000-2019).

We remind you that the World Bank predicts a positive growth of the Ukrainian economy of 3.5% against the backdrop of the war with Russia.

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Source: korrespondent

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