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Julio Velarde: 2023 economic growth ‘probably not as good’ as expected

BCR President Julio Velarde introduced himself to the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC). | Fountain: Andina – Reference Image

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The social protests that resumed in January would have had an impact of more than 4% on national productionaccording to the latest comments by Julio Velarde.

The President of the Central Reserve Bank (BCR), during his participation in the Miners and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC), indicated that Peru would start 2023 with a 1.4% decline.

“We were going to grow a little more than 3% (in January), in January we are likely to be down 1.4%. We think February will be much better, but we’ll see,” Velarde said.

Even though the President currency unit He believes that in February the result was more positive, and noted that the forecasts for the outcome of 2023 will no longer be the same.

Velarde commented that Peru’s economic growth this year “probably won’t be as good as we thought” last December.

In addition, he pointed out that business expectations They are still low, but there is a significant improvement as of February compared to six months ago.

In terms of mining, the BCR President indicated that if it can be normalized, “even with the expectation of disruption”, the Peruvian primary sector could grow by 6.3% this year, “which will greatly help the recovery.”

“We had a strong expansion production copper with Quellaveco and hopefully these future projects (in Peru) will materialize and have high production volumes,” he added.

Despite the problems identified, Velarde recalled that Peru was one of the countries that has grown the most in Latin America in recent decades.

Interest rate

Last month, annual inflation in the country was close to 9%, but will BCR raise interest rates again to cushion this price increase?

still central bank he raised the rate to 7.75% to dampen inflationary expectations. Growth was stalled last month, but Velarde doesn’t rule out it picking up again.

“If we have to raise the stake, there is room,” he commented briefly.

Velarde added that the currency still expects to end 2023 with inflation at 3%, despite the impact of the demonstrations, and “if it’s not 3%, it should be a little more, close to 3.1%. In 2024 (we aim) 2.4%.” “.

Source: RPP

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