Experts warn of economic slowdown after GDP reports

Peruvian economy during 2022 it grew by 2.68%, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (ERI), below the expectations of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), which predicted growth from 2.7% to 3% at the end of last year.

“This has been disappointing growth and it shows that the economy is in a clear recession,” said Luis Miguel Castilla, a former economy minister.

For Castile, the low growth is due to the expansion of the sectors with the largest contribution to the economy, such as the mining and hydrocarbon sector and manufacturing, together they contribute just over 30% to the economy. national GDP.

“This growth is lower than expected, mainly because in important sectors such as mining, growth was almost zero in 2022, and manufacturing, which accounts for almost 17% GDP It grew slowly due to higher production costs,” he said.

Curiously, although the mining industry showed growth of only 0.35% in 2022, it was the sector with the most progress in December, and its influence allowed for a positive result overall, according to Juan Carlos Odar, director of Phase Consultores.

“In December, there is growth (GDP) of 0.9% per year, which exceeded expectations, and the fundamental factor is booty. Mining output rose over 9% in December alone, and this is driven by copper, in particular Quellaveco. If we look at it, the mining industry is the only sector where the growth rate is higher than the average for the year,” he explained.

How was the monthly production?

manual production during 2022 it remained unstable. From August to October, it showed consistent growth, but this was not reflected in November and December, the last month of the year showed only an increase of 0.86%.

In December, industrial production fell for the second month in a row, while agriculture, including food and livestock, showed a new decline, which has not been seen since June last year.

Peru on the way to recession

In such a scenario economic forecast belonging Peru for the next months, it is still undefined, especially since it does not reflect the consequences of the social conflict that began in December 2022, explained Silvana Huanki, a professor at the School of Government at the University of the Pacific.

“The INEI data still does not reflect the impact of the strikes and demonstrations of recent weeks, and this will be reflected in the production of the first months of this year, with which an economic downturn in some sectors of the economy should be expected. Key sectors such as hotels and restaurants that have been recovering can be expected to register lower levels than in previous months, especially areas that have recorded higher levels. social conflict”, he referred.

Recall that the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of America expected growth in the country of less than 3% and did not rule out the scenario of an economic downturn in Peru this year.