The dynamics of the economic situation of many countries caused “positive surprises” and showed “unexpectedly high stability,” the fund said.
The International Monetary Fund upgraded its forecast for global GDP growth in 2023 to 2.9%, which was 0.2% more than expected in October. This was stated in the update published by the IMF on Monday, January 30, in the report on the prospects for the development of the world economy.
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At the same time, the organization lowered its growth forecast for next year, 2024, by 0.1% to 3.1%. Both indicators are significantly below the average for 2000-2019 (3.8%).
The IMF said that the dynamics of the economic situation of many countries caused “positive surprises” and showed “unexpectedly high stability.” Thus, China’s GDP is expected to grow by 5.2% in 2023, and by 4.5% a year later. Last but not least, analysts explain China’s high growth rate by Beijing’s rejection of the “zero tolerance” policy towards the coronavirus.
India’s economy, according to IMF forecasts, will grow by 6.1% this year and 6.8% next year. In the US, these numbers are expected to be 1.4% and 1%, respectively. For Russia, the forecast has been significantly improved – in 2023 from a fall of 2.3% to an increase of 0.3%, and in 2024 the growth of the Russian economy is expected to accelerate to 2.1%.
As for Germany, its economy, according to the IMF forecast, will only grow by 0.1% this year. However, this is still better than the October forecast, which promised Germany a slight contraction against the backdrop of a sharp reduction in gas supplies from Russia. In 2024, the IMF expects the German economy to accelerate to 1.4%.
From other large EU countries – such as France, Italy and Spain – the IMF expects higher growth. An exception in the Old World is Great Britain, whose economy was hit harder than expected last year by the crisis. His forecast promises a decrease in GDP this year by 0.6%, and only in 2024 – an increase of 0.6%.
It was previously reported that the IMF will not worsen the global forecast for 2023. At the same time, the fund believes that this year will be another difficult one for the global economy, and it will not be possible to beat inflation.
Also, the IMF fears the world’s collapse into economic blocs. Global economic losses from increased fragmentation could lead to a 7% reduction in world GDP.
Source: Russian Service DW
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Source: korrespondent
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