A month before the attack, Putin’s residence near Moscow was visited by Sberbank chief executive German Gref and Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina. The media learned the content of their conversation.
Confidants of Russian President Vladimir Putin have warned him about the catastrophic consequences for the Russian economy in the event of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Financial Times reports, citing sources.
A month before the full-scale invasion in February, Putin’s residence near Moscow was visited by Sberbank chief executive German Gref and central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina, according to the outlet. The two are considered technocrats in the Russian president’s team, who usually speak their minds.
Gref delivered a 39-page presentation in which he warned of catastrophic consequences if tensions around Ukraine, which have reached their peak, worsen. In particular, they believe that severe sanctions will cause panic in financial markets and could set back the Russian economy by decades.
The fall in Russia’s GDP in two years is estimated at 30% in dollar terms, and inflation may force the Central Bank to raise the rate to 35%, reducing real incomes by 20%. Putin was also told that the quality of life of Russians will lag even in developing countries, as import restrictions will force the country to literally fight against the needs of medicine and food.
As Gref discussed the possible consequences, Putin interrupted him and asked what Russia should do to avoid the worst of the sanctions, the FT’s sources said. He did not have a clear decision and he did not dare to say that the president of the Russian Federation is in danger of a geopolitical disaster.
The interlocutors also noted that they left the meeting not knowing exactly what Putin had planned and whether he had taken their warnings into account.
“They had the courage to ask him to meet. But they couldn’t get the message across. They couldn’t give an answer,” said one of the sources.
But while Western countries have isolated Russia from global financial markets and supply chains, technocrats have helped the Kremlin, applying economic management skills to contain the crisis. In doing so, they ensured that their own apocalyptic predictions did not come true.
Instead of breaking with Putin, former officials say the technocrats have established themselves as his assistants, using their experience and tools to soften the blow of Western sanctions and keep the economy together during the Russian war.
As a result, the Russian economy has avoided the most dramatic manifestations from Western economists about the impact of sanctions, while the impact on GDP this year is likely to be in the order of 3.5-5.5%.
It was previously reported that the Russian Federation expects an economic recession until 2030. The collapse of the Russian economy will intensify due to sanctions, it will return to the pre-war level no earlier than 2030.
Remember, Bloomberg wrote that three months of war against Ukraine set the Russian economy back four years. It was noted that in the first quarter of 2022, the Russian economy grew, but in the second quarter it fell sharply – the GDP contracted for the first time in a year, falling by 4.7% per year.
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Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.