After the OPEC+ decision to reduce oil production, the partnership between the US and Saudi Arabia seems to be in crisis, while the Russian Federation can replace the military budget by exporting energy.
The reaction of US President Joe Biden was absolutely clear. OPEC+’s Oct. 5 decision to cut oil production by two million barrels a day in November, which is estimated at about two percent of daily global consumption, was a “failure,” Biden said after the decision. And he added that it points to existing “problems” – referring to Saudi Arabia, a traditional ally of the United States, as well as a key member of OPEC +.
After that, the American channel CNN quoted a representative of the US Treasury who wished to remain anonymous, considering the decision of OPEC + “a hostile act.” Other representatives of American authorities also reacted to this decision: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre criticized OPEC + for the “alliance” with Russia. Chuck Schumer, head of the US Senate Democratic caucus, tweeted that OPEC+’s decision was “cynical”.
Insult the President of the United States
On October 11, the White House announced that Biden was seeking a renegotiation of relations with Saudi Arabia. And the president himself told CNN that he would not say what steps he intends to take, but promised that “there will be consequences.”
However, as recently as July, Biden visited Saudi Arabia and, despite previous misgivings, appeared to be in good spirits during a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has been ostracized around the world in within a few years after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
The trip to the country, which has been repeatedly accused of violating human rights, has drawn significant criticism in the United States, but for Biden it is important: the American president hopes for an increase in Saudi oil production shortly before the midterm elections at home and in the midst of the energy crisis and confrontation with Russia after the start of the war in Ukraine. However, the unexpected announcement of production cuts was not pleasant news for him. Riyadh Biden’s decision in the current situation can only be thought of as an insult. On the other hand, Vladimir Putin, who is helped by oil exports to fill his military budget, is likely to see this as de facto support from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
Four weeks before the midterm elections in America, prices began to rise again – restrictions on oil production could further increase their growth. And this, in turn, could significantly reduce the chances of Democrat Joe Biden’s victory. Washington already suspects that Saudi Arabia, favored by Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump as a foreign policy partner, could further contribute to the Republican election victory through its oil policy.
Geopolitical turn towards the Russian Federation?
For Biden, OPEC’s course is also vexing from a foreign policy perspective. The planned reduction in oil production reduces the impact of Western sanctions against the Russian Federation, which were introduced in June due to Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine – we are talking, first of all, about the embargo on Russian oil supply. The expected increase in oil prices as a result of OPEC’s decision could give Russia more money in the world market than it is losing due to the EU boycott.
“Clearly, Saudi Arabia is now firmly on the other side of what Washington considers the most important dividing line in world politics,” George Washington University political scientist and Middle East expert Mark Lynch wrote in a blog post . On one side of the line that Lynch writes is Russia, on the other side is Ukraine and its Western partners and supporters. Saudi Arabia and the countries of the Persian Gulf have not yet supported the Western state and did not join the sanctions against Russia. Now, however, Saudi Arabia may be making a “geopolitical turn,” political scientist Ulrike Franke of the European Council on Foreign Relations tweeted.
Bilal Saab, director of the Defense and Security Program at Washington’s Middle East Institute (MEI), was more cautious in an interview with DW. Now Russia will certainly receive higher income from oil sales, he said, “and this, of course, will not help to slow down Russia’s military actions against Ukraine.”
Justification of Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia, in turn, is trying to downplay the OPEC+ decision and justify it in terms of economic policy. “Oil is not a weapon, nor an aircraft, nor a tank that can be fired,” Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said in an interview with US television Fox News. Al-Sharq al-Awsat, a newspaper close to the Saudi government, also claims that the OPEC+ countries were only guided by economic motives in their decision.
Bilal Saab admitted that Saudi Arabia wants to send a political signal to Washington, but its decision to produce oil is mainly in its own economic interest: for the stability of the situation in the country and for the implementation of large-scale projects economic and social. , Riyadh needs a guaranteed profit from oil sales.
Alienation between Washington and Riyadh
Washington and Riyadh have long been estranged. After Iran’s attack on Saudi oil facilities, the country felt abandoned by the United States. And the US was angered by the 2018 killing of Saudi regime critic Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, in which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman allegedly played a major role.
The parties also have different positions on Iran’s weapons program: while the United States, under the leadership of Biden, is again betting on negotiations with Tehran, Saudi Arabia considers the 2015 nuclear agreement insufficient guarantees against Iran’s nuclear weapons. However, the kingdom is also hoping for a diplomatic solution to this issue.
Thus, in recent years, the two states have become increasingly distant from each other, and their relationship is no longer as close as it was in decades. Bilal Saab of the Washington-based Middle East Institute suggests that the political coolness has made it easier for the Saudis to decide to cut oil production against American demands and interests. “I doubt that Riyadh would have made this decision if the dialogue between the Americans and the Saudis had been more productive recently,” he said.
In the long run, OPEC+’s decision could further worsen military relations between the two countries, Bilal Saab predicted. Currently, the armed forces of Saudi Arabia and the United States cooperate closely. But without a favorable political climate, their further development is almost impossible, said the political scientist, because “it is impossible to maintain relations at the military level alone.” At the same time, he believes that Riyadh will try to improve relations with the United States – but only after the end of the era of Joe Biden and the possible victory of the Republicans in the elections.
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.