Analysts suggest that by the end of 2022, Russia will experience a severe shortage of shells, artillery and armored vehicles.
Journalists of the investigative project The Insider came to the conclusion that the consumption of weapons and military equipment by the Russian army in the war against Ukraine is close to critical in some respects. In their opinion, at the current intensity of fighting by the end of the year, Russia will be left with almost no shells, artillery and armored vehicles.
Put on
“Half a year of war for Russia led not only to enormous irreplaceable losses in manpower, but also to a huge expenditure of weapons and military equipment: there are already very few guided missiles, the shells for of artillery and armored vehicles will run out by the end of the year, and the state military aviation does not allow a full-scale air campaign. Because of the sanctions, Russia cannot resume full industrial production of weapons and replace stocks of weapons that are rapidly depleting,” said The Insider.
According to the analysis of the publication, for six months of aggression against Ukraine, Russia should have spent at least 7 million roundswithout taking into account the losses of front-line warehouses as a result of Ukrainian strikes.
“If the intensity of the war remains at its current level, Moscow will face a real shortage of shells by the end of 2022 and will be forced to reduce the use of artillery to save money,” the text said.
The authors also noted the barrel wear problem. At the same time, if the guides in many rocket launchers with proper maintenance have a long service life, then for rifled artillery guns, like tank guns, the barrels wear out faster. According to the publication, by the end of 2022, the wear of artillery itself will be a sharp decrease in its effectiveness. Thus, the expected shortage of shells must coincide with the growing shortage of artillery itself.
What about production?
As The Insider wrote, “things are not going well” in the manufacture of artillery and ammunition. “Cutting off the supply of equipment, spare parts and materials to the West and at the same time limiting human capital and labor productivity, Russian artillery and ammunition manufacturers are inevitably less stagnant, but there is a reduction in production,” the text said.
The shortage of long-range missiles is also growing in the Russian Federation. However, Russia is covering up the growing shortage of such missiles by shelling Ukrainian cities with long-range rocket artillery and using S-300/S-400 air defense/missile defense systems to strike targets on the ground.
It is unlikely that the Russian industry has the potential to seriously increase the production of missiles because not only of the embargo on the supply of equipment and personnel restrictions, but also because of relatively low labor productivity, the text says.
Armored vehicles and aviation
It also mentions the possible shortage of armored vehicles. “Even taking into account the delivery of relatively fresh, although not new, armored vehicles from military units and storage bases, a large part of it, while maintaining a high intensity of combat, at the end of 2022 will have to be repaired, provided it is not destroyed,” the newspaper wrote. .
The situation in aviation, “at first glance, better.” Today, taking into account the losses and destruction, Russia is still able to maintain about 400 aircraft of various types and about 360 helicopters near the borders of Ukraine, although not all of them are attack.
“However, Russia has not been able to conduct a large-scale air campaign since the beginning of the war, and now its capabilities for such a campaign have only diminished,” the article said.
Other ratings
At the same time, for example, the Inspector General of the German Armed Forces, General Eberhard Zorn, believes that the Russian ground forces retain the potential to open a “second theater” of war, despite the exhausting campaign in Ukraine.
“Maybe most of the Russian ground forces are now in Ukraine, but even if this is true, we should not underestimate the potential of the Russian ground forces to open a second theater of war,” said the top official of the Bundeswehr military.
He recalled that Russia also has a fleet, which it hardly used in Ukraine, as well as aviation with “significant potential that poses a threat to NATO.”
“Militarily, Russia is very good at spreading conflict in the region. Another question is that for Russia this would be a very reckless step,” Zorn added.
Assessing the situation in Ukraine, the inspector general of the Bundeswehr noted that the pace of the Russian offensive had slowed, but it was still advancing with the support of massive artillery fire, “despite the casualties among Ukrainian civilians.”
“Russia has an incredibly large number of shells. Some of them are outdated and very inaccurate, but that is why they cause serious destruction of civilian infrastructure. They (Russia) used 40-60 thousand artillery shells per day,” he estimated.
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.